College Football Week 8 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2022)

Oct 20, 2022 - 2:00 PM

Week 7 was, again, ripe with longshot winners in college football. This article highlighted Louisiana over Marshall on Wednesday night as well as the Rocky Top stunner in Knoxville on Saturday. We’re well into the thick of the college football season, where teams start reassessing their season goals. Lines start getting sharper, and long shots can be tougher to key in on, but we’ll keep forging ahead to find those diamonds in the rough. Let’s take a look at the week 8 slate.

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 8 College Football Power Rankings >>

Duke (+9.5) at Miami

Miami has been disappointing in the 2022 campaign. High hopes for the offense have been dashed early. An EPA per play ranking of 68th is not where they envisioned themselves in head coach Mario Cristobal’s first season with the Hurricanes. In week 8, they’ll match up with a Duke defense that has improved on last season.

Duke’s run defense has led the way for that unit. Sitting 15th in defensive run EPA, they’ve been able to control opponents’ ground game, which should continue in this matchup. Miami ranks near last, 117th, in offensive run EPA.

Though Miami has had success in the air, they’ve struggled in games where the offense couldn’t get the ground game going, as they did in losses to Middle Tennessee and North Carolina. Without a run game, Miami may not be able to move the ball on offense the way they need to in order to pull out the home win.

Duke’s offense has gone punch for punch with some of the better offenses in FBS. Tough losses to Kansas and UNC saw the Blue Devils rack up 460+ yards. Though they may not be an elite unit, they’re more than capable of putting up points with dual-threat QB Riley Leonard.

After a disappointing start, there’s a concern about where Miami’s head is at. This Duke team struggled in the last years under legendary coach David Cutcliffe, but Mike Elko has these guys two wins away from their first bowl game since 2018. They’ll move their magic number to just one with an upset win over Miami. 

Pick: Duke ML (+260)

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FIU (+14.5) at Charlotte

I won’t blame anyone for skipping right through this write-up. These are two of the worst teams in all of FBS. Sometimes when you dumpster dive, though, you can find the best value.

FIU currently sits as an underdog of over two touchdowns. Against most opponents, this is warranted. The Golden Panthers are nearly dead last in SP+, 130th out of 131. Their defensive metric also sits at 130th. The offense doesn’t rate out much better, 125th in SP+. However, they meet the only opponent with worse defense, the Charlotte 49ers. 

Charlotte hasn’t been able to stop anyone they’ve played this year, including FCS William & Mary, and shouldn’t be this large of favorites over anyone. Though FIU has struggled to score in some games this year, they’ve played some sneaky decent defenses per EPA. Against a unit like Charlotte, they should be able to get things moving on the offensive end.

FIU has had some ugly losses this season, but these two teams are much closer than this line indicates. This will be an opportunity for both teams to score early and often. The type of back-and-forth affair we’ll see Saturday is ripe for variance and upsets. With a Charlotte defense that won’t provide much resistance, expect FIU to keep this one close and even pull off the huge upset.

Pick: FIU ML (+430)

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UCLA (+6) at Oregon

Two of the most prolific offenses in the country will face off in this big-time PAC 12 matchup. UCLA brings the 3rd ranked SP+ offense led by QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. He’s been explosive through the air, with over 250 yards per game and 15 touchdowns on the season. Paired with RB Zach Charbonnet, who has racked up over 100 yards per game on the ground, they’ve yet to meet a defense that could slow them down.

Oregon has its own high-powered attack. Led by QB Bo Nix, the Auburn transfer, Oregon has been putting up crooked numbers on every opponent since their punch in the mouth week 1 against Georgia. The Ducks have the 2nd best offensive EPA per play in the country and lead the country in run offense EPA. 

The UCLA run defense will pose the biggest test the Ducks have faced since getting shut down by Georgia. A 22nd-ranked run defense EPA by UCLA can slow down Oregon, taking away their biggest strength.

Offensively for UCLA, Dorian Thompson-Robinson will look to continue a streak of huge games against ranked opponents. He torched Washington and Utah in the last two games and gets a 117th-ranked pass defense by EPA in Oregon.

Autzen Stadium will be rocking, but UCLA is the better team here, even if only marginally. Expect UCLA to walk in and stun the Ducks with an upset victory. Additionally, expect Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s name to be thrown into the Heisman talk after another stellar performance.

Pick: UCLA ML (+175)

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