College Football Week 8 Odds, Picks & Predictions: New Mexico vs. Fresno State (2022)

Oct 20, 2022 - 4:03 PM

Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 8 odds, picks, and predictions for: New Mexico vs. Fresno State.

 

And check out our other College Football Week 8 game previews:

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College Football Week 8 Odds, Picks & Prediction: New Mexico vs. Fresno State

I’m banking on Fresno State QB Jake Haener missing another game with a high-ankle sprain. HC Jeff Teford has only said this week that Haener remains “week-to-week,” the same designation Haener has been given while missing the past three games.

If Haener’s out, New Mexico matches up really well for a double-digit home ‘dog.

The Lobos are a run-heavy outfit that lean into zone-read option concepts. They do not take chances through the air. New Mexico’s strength is its defense. The Lobos are solid against the run, are very good on third downs, and stand a solid No. 54 in sack rate.

Fresno’s offense is one-handed without Haener. QB2 Logan Fife has posted a 1/5 TD/INT rate in his three starts. When it has the ball, the Bulldogs will lean into New Mexico’s strength and try to establish the run.

If Fresno finds itself in third-and-medium or third-and-long situations, it’s going to be punting up a storm. FSU ranks No. 125 and No. 100, respectively, in those offensive categories, while New Mexico’s defense ranks No. 1 and No. 24. Fife’s turnover issues could also come into play against a turnover-happy New Mexico defense. The Lobos rank No. 13 with 13 turnovers forced.

Fresno State’s defensive strength is its pass defense and secondary. New Mexico’s ground-dominant attack will avoid that. Instead, it will target a weak Fresno State run defense that ranks No. 105 in efficiency and No. 120 in opportunity rate.

Not only that, but Tedford said this week that his team was unable to simulate New Mexico’s run-option concepts in practice. “You cannot do it the way they do it,” he said.

New Mexico has lost four-straight, but they’ve been on the doorstep in each of the last three. The Lobos led 17-0 against UNLV and 14-0 against Wyoming, respectively, before ultimately losing those games 31-20 and 27-14.

Last week, New Mexico outgained NMSU 269-225, won the time of possession battle by nearly 13 minutes, and ran 24 more offensive plays. But the Lobos went just 3-16 on third downs, were held to field goals in all three scoring opportunities (while coughing up three TD in NMSU’s), and committed the game’s only turnover.

Fresno is coming off a big upset win over San Jose State. It would be a surprise if their effort was as spirited the next week in this sleepy road spot with San Diego State on deck. This profiles as a potential ambush spot for a live home ‘dog.

The pick: New Mexico +10.5

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