College Football Week 10 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Under-the-Radar Plays (2022)

Nov 3, 2022 - 12:30 PM

Week 9 was another winning week for our under-the-radar plays, with Southern Miss and ECU both winning outright to give us a 2-1 record. We would’ve been perfect if not for a Colorado punt return touchdown with four minutes remaining to cut the deficit to 42-34.

But those bad beats are easier to swallow when you’re having a solid season. Week 10 is another week jam-packed with marquee matchups. Here are my favorite plays in the games that aren’t getting as much publicity.

Last week’s record: 2-1

2022 season record: 19-12-1

Appalachian State Mountaineers (-3) at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, Total 64.5

Coastal Carolina and App State will square off Thursday night in a critical Sun Belt East showdown. The Chanticleers control their own destiny to the Sun Belt title game, sitting at 4-1 in conference play. However, it’s the Mountaineers that opened as 2.5-point favorites and have since been bumped up to the key number of -3. The fact that there hasn’t been much buyback since might tell us everything we need to know about which side is right.

On the field, this is a solid matchup for the Mountaineers too. Coastal Carolina’s offense is built around quarterback Grayson McCall, who has been spectacular this season. McCall has thrown for 2,061 yards and has 19 TDs with just one interception this year. Coastal ranks eighth in the country averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt.

However, Appalachian State has the defense to slow down this Chanticleers offense. The Mountaineers are 33rd in pass defense, allowing just 6.6 yards per attempt. They also rank 42nd in run defense, which is important against a Coastal offense that is capable on the ground too.

Offensively, App State quarterback Chase Brice should be able to throw all over a Chanticleers secondary that ranks 124th in the nation, allowing 8.8 yards per attempt.

The Mountaineers should get the job done in a game they need to stay alive in the division race.

The pick: App State -3

UT-San Antonio Roadrunners (-1) at UAB Blazers, Total 52

We begin this week’s slate with a tilt between two teams we’ve won some money on throughout the season. The last time we bet on UAB, they came up just short in a similar spot as short dogs against Western Kentucky.

This time, the Blazers are at home in what looks like another favorable matchup. UTSA relies on quarterback Frank Harris and a passing game that ranks seventh in the nation at 330.4 passing yards per game. That plays right into the strength of the UAB defense, which ranks ninth against the pass, allowing just 171.5 passing yards per game. While UAB ultimately lost to the pass-happy Hilltoppers, they held them to just 5.6 yards per pass, well below their average of 7.6 yards per attempt.

On the flip side, UAB hopes to get mobile quarterback Dylan Hopkins back from injury this weekend. A Blazers offense at full strength could succeed against a Roadrunners defense that’s giving up nearly six yards per play.

If you’d prefer to wait until Hopkins is confirmed, I get it. However, be prepared for a swift line movement if he’s ruled in. The Blazers may close as a short favorite.

The pick: UAB +1

James Madison Dukes (-7.5) at Louisville Cardinals, Total 52.5

What a nasty spot for the Cards at home. Louisville is coming off a dominant victory over 10th-ranked Wake Forest and now could be looking ahead to a road clash with Clemson next week. But Louisville can’t look too far ahead, as James Madison is no slouch in its first year in FBS. The 5-2 Dukes are in the running for the competitive Sun Belt, and they actually match up very well with Louisville.

Louisville’s offense is predicated on a ground game that averages 4.94 yards per attempt, which ranks 29th in the country. The problem is the Dukes lead the nation in run defense and are the only team in the country allowing fewer than two yards per carry.

Offensively, James Madison’s 18th-ranked passing game should succeed against a Cardinals secondary giving up 7.5 yards per attempt.

Louisville is susceptible to playing down to its opponents. Considering this letdown and look-ahead spot, I’d take the Dukes at +7 or better.

The pick: James Madison +7.5

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