College Football Week 11 Picks & Predictions (2022)

Nov 10, 2022 - 11:50 AM

Let’s start with the incredible performance by our underdogs last week, 4-0 ATS, and two ML winners. Liberty, at +440, led the entire game and hung on at the end!! Baylor led wire to wire and got you to the window with little worry. If Auburn had held on, we would have had a historic weekend with two ML winners over +350. Nevertheless, if you tailed the underdog teaser, you cashed with little to no sweat and probably had a solid Saturday betting. Now onto the bad. Favorites went 1-4 ATS and 3-2 ML. Air Force and San Diego State narrowly missed covering, while Clemson was utterly destroyed. That brings our overall ATS record to 30-24-1 with thirteen ML underdog winners.

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 8 College Football Power Rankings >>

Overview

The thought process for anyone reading this for the first time is simple: We target teams with a top-30 rush rate. We will look at six main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, Defensive Power Success Rate, Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness), and PFF Rush Defense.

There are several angles at play:

• An underdog with a high rush rate vs. an opponent who is below average in the four main defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script.
• A favorite with a top-30 rush rate vs. an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite’s plan B strategy will never be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense.
• An underdog with a top-30 rush rate vs. a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to blow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial 8-ball.
• A favorite with a top-30 rush rate vs. an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be, at most, a 10-point favorite.

The reason for this thinking is that high rush rates will always lead to fewer possessions and overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. This allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams. Here’s a summary of the teams we are looking for.

• Underdogs with a top-30 rush rate vs. below-average defenses
• Underdogs with a stout defense vs. a top-30 rush rate favorite
• Favorites with a stout defense vs. a top 30 rush rate underdog
• Favorites with a top-30 rush rate (not greater than -10) vs. a below-average defense

Glossary

• Stuff Rate: tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
• Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
• Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd and 4th down.
• Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)
• Def Power Success Rate: the percentage of running plays on 3rd or 4th down from 2 yards or less in which an offense either converted into a 1st down or scored a TD. 1st and 2nd down and goal plays within the 2-yard line are also included.
• PFF Rush Defense: PFF film-graded metric

Let’s dive into the thirteen games we will target this week.

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Pittsburgh @ Virginia

Pittsburgh

• 29th Rush Rate

Virginia

• 128th Def Stuff Rate
• 99th Def Line Yards
• 34th Power Success Rate
• 35th Def Rush Success Rate
• 22nd Def Rush IsoPPP
• 87th PFF Rush Def

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Liberty @ UCONN

UCONN

• 5th Rush Rate

Liberty

• 7th Def Stuff Rate
• 5th Def Line Yards
• 36th Power Success Rate
• 10th Def Rush Success Rate
• 92nd Def Rush IsoPPP
• 21st PFF Rush Def

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SMU @ South Florida

South Florida

• 35th Rush Rate

SMU

• 107th Def Stuff Rate
• 78th Def Line Yards
• 38th Power Success Rate
• 92nd Def Rush Success Rate
• 123rd Def Rush IsoPPP
• 113th PFF Rush Def

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ULM @ Georgia State

Georgia State

• 4th Rush Rate

ULM

• 43rd Def Stuff Rate
• 68th Def Line Yards
• 17th Power Success Rate
• 69th Def Rush Success Rate
• 121st Def Rush IsoPPP
• 105th PFF Rush Def

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Alabama @ Ole Miss

Ole Miss

• 6th Rush Rate

Alabama

• 16th Def Stuff Rate
• 28th Def Line Yards
• 39th Power Success Rate
• 50th Def Rush Success Rate
• 17th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 1st PFF Rush Def

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Wisconsin @ Iowa

Wisconsin

• 17th Rush Rate

Iowa

• 63rd Def Stuff Rate
• 15th Def Line Yards
• 52nd Power Success Rate
• 43rd Def Rush Success Rate
• 2nd Def Rush IsoPPP
• 15th PFF Rush Def

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North Texas @ UAB

UAB

• 16th Rush Rate

North Texas

• 131st Def Stuff Rate
• 131st Def Line Yards
• 109th Power Success Rate
• 128th Def Rush Success Rate
• 40th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 29th PFF Rush Def

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South Carolina @ Florida

Florida

• 36th Rush Rate

South Carolina

• 122nd Def Stuff Rate
• 113th Def Line Yards
• 114th Power Success Rate
• 127th Def Rush Sucess Rate
• 4th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 103rd PFF Rush Def

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Wyoming @ Colorado State

Wyoming

• 15th Rush Rate

Colorado State

• 76th Def Stuff Rate
• 66th Def Line Yards
• 82nd Power Success Rate
• 75th Def Rush Success Rate
• 90th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 97th PFF Rush Def

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Texas A&M @ Auburn

Auburn

• 28th Rush Rate

Texas A&M

• 36th Def Stuff Rate
• 63rd Def Line Yards
• 68th Power Success Rate
• 74th Def Rush Success Rate
• 76th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 126th PFF Rush Def

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California @ Oregon State

Oregon State

• 20th Rush Rate

California

• 92nd Def Stuff Rate
• 100th Def Line Yards
• 104th Power Success Rate
• 117th Def Rush Success Rate
• 5th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 128th PFF Rush Def

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San Jose State @ San Diego State

San Diego State

• 30th Rush Rate

San Jose State

• 11th Def Stuff Rate
• 42nd Def Line Yards
• 9th Power Success Rate
• 19th Def Rush Success Rate
• 116th Def Rush IsoPPP
• 45th PFF Rush Def

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Utah State @ Hawaii

Utah State

• 22nd Rush Rate

Hawaii

• 117th Def Stuff Rate
• 124th Def Line Yards
• 72nd Power Success Rate
• 121st Def Rush Success Rate
• 83rd Def Rush IsoPPP
• 105th PFF Rush Def

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The Bets

Here’s the breakdown of the thirteen games we are going to target this week

• South Florida (+17.5) is the only underdog with a top-30 rush rate.
• Iowa (+1.5) is the only underdog with a stout defense facing a top-30 rush-rate opponent.
• Pittsburgh (-3.5), UAB (-5.5), Florida (-7.5), Auburn (-1.5), Wyoming (-8.5), Utah State (-11.5), Georgia State (-13.5), and Oregon State (-13.5) are the eight favorites who have top-30 rush rates
• Liberty (-14.5), Alabama (-11.5), and San Jose State (-2.5) are the three favorites with stout defenses facing top-30 rush rate opponent.

This is infinitely more favorites than I prefer to write up. The thing is, though, we have some favorites in extremely juicy spots. They genuinely could control the game script from the outset and never look back. We have some familiar teams in this column that we have targeted numerous times with success (Liberty, Auburn, Utah State, and Oregon State).

South Florida +17.5 is a huge number. Everyone watched SMU score 77 points last week and put on a clinic offensively. That’s great for us because the line is obviously inflated. South Florida will face an abysmal SMU rush defense. South Florida should be able to limit possessions and run all over this sieve of a defense. Simply put, +17.5 is too much.

Auburn showed incredible resolve last week vs. Mississippi State. They came barreling back and almost pulled off a victory that very few gave them a chance at. Texas A&M is easily the biggest disappointment in the SEC, if not the entire country. Texas A&M is average in most categories against the run, but the one that stands out to me is 126th in PFF Rush Def. That shows me they lack overall discipline and that will show up against an Auburn team that has a renewed spirit.

Florida and Oregon State will face run funnel defenses. The easiest way to identify a run funnel defense is they are abysmal in every category except IsoPPP (explosiveness). This is essentially the equivalent of a team playing a preventive defense against the pass in a two-minute drill. Florida and Oregon State should run the ball with little resistance thus covering these larger spreads gives us a little more comfort.

With the majority of our teams being favorites, we will look at ML Parlays and Teasers.

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ML Parlay

• San Jose State ML
• Pittsburgh ML
• UAB ML
• Auburn ML
• South Florida +17.5

This parlay pays +1213. These favorites are in exploitable situations, and we have an underdog who is getting too many points.

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7pt Teaser

• Iowa +8.5
• Florida PK
• Wyoming -1.5
• Liberty -7.5
• Oregon State -6.5
• Alabama -4.5

This teaser pays +450. I would not use any team to cross zero when it comes to doing 7 pt teasers. Basically, that means using favorites of 7pts or more to capture as much value as possible.

You can find me on Twitter @goldendomer622 if you have any questions about the process or comments in general. Good luck with your bets this weekend!!!!

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