Bogman’s College Football Week 11 Best Bets (2022)

Nov 10, 2022 - 8:31 AM

After splitting his 10 picks right down the middle last week, Scott Bogman returns with his Week 11 best bets and predictions.

Week 10 results: 5-5

2022 Season Record: 58-42

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 11 College Football Power Rankings >>

#5 Tennessee vs Missouri OVER 56.5

So, Tennessee is human after all! It may have been a little unfair to ask them to beat Georgia, but it seemed that anything was possible after beating Alabama. Instead, we saw the Volunteers go down to Georgia and only put up 13 points. For a team averaging over 50 points per game, that was an embarrassing performance and the only time they have scored fewer than 34 points in a game.  

The silver lining from the loss to Alabama is that now Tennessee is on the outside looking in for the CFP, so they will want to put up impressive numbers to show their dominance and prove that the loss was a blip on the radar. Tennessee is still averaging 45 points per game and, while they may not get to that against a strong Missouri defense, I think they’ll get to at least 34 again, as that was their previous low.

QB Hendon Hooker is still the leader of this team that is 2nd in total offense and passing while also averaging over 180 yards on the ground. Missouri is playing well defensively, allowing just over 21 points per game and they are top-15 in total yards allowed per game. I just feel like Georgia, specifically when DL Jalen Carter plays, is a step above everyone else in the Country. Tennessee put up 49 on Alabama which ranks better statistically and in PFF grade than Missouri.

Tennessee has been improving on the defensive side of the ball but is still 127th against the pass. Some of that is because they are stomping most teams into the ground and those teams are trying to come back down the stretch. In PFF grade, the Vols are a hair away from triple digits and the rushing grade is MUCH different than the rushing stats. 

Missouri isn’t considered a strong offensive team and the stats and grades back that up. They mustered up 22 against Georgia and we won’t need them to score a ton with Tennessee doing the heavy lifting. Missouri has had a knack for keeping the scores low and keeping themselves in games this season.

Missouri is 5-4 ATS and has only hit the Over once this season. That was in their first game! I just feel like this total is way too low. Tennessee has scored at least 40 points in 6 of their 10 games, and I think that is the minimum they’ll score here. So, we would only need Missouri to score 17 points. 

This game is going to boil down to how Tennessee responds to the first piece of adversity they have encountered. The Vols are still VERY alive in the playoff picture, and I expect them to get the majority of this total in a bounce-back dismantling of Missouri!

Troy (-9) vs Army AND UNDER 46.5

I expect this game to be low-scoring and UGLY! Troy isn’t an offensive juggernaut, averaging just over three TDs per game. The Trojans’ highest score against an FBS opponent this season was 34 vs. WKU, but 6 of their 9 games have gone under this total.

Troy doesn’t match up well offensively against Army. Troy is one sided on offense as a Top-25 passing offense, but they are one of only 12 teams averaging under 100 rushing yards per game.

Army is awful against the run, as they are one of 12 teams allowing over 200 yards rushing per game. However, they are top-20 against the pass and one of 30 teams allowing fewer than 200 yards passing.  

Troy does have a strong defense, especially for a G5 team. They are going to have to play strong against the run to stop the triple-option attack from the Black Knights.

Troy is led on defense by three All-Conference players upfront in DT Will Choloh Jr, Edge Javon Solomon and LB Carlton Martial who is also on the Senior Bowl watch list (along with another Trojan Edge Richard Jibunor). This strong front will have to hold the #2 rushing offense in the country.

The only team that Army has beaten in FBS was ULM. The Black Knights haven’t been the same type of offense in most games since RB Tyrell Robinson went down.

Troy should win this game. They have played in a decent amount of close games, but they stand 7-2 against the spread this season. Troy has won ATS in every game with a spread lower than 16 points and have won straight up three times as outright underdogs. 

Army put up some points in September against some good teams with 28 in a loss to Coastal Carolina and 38 against UTSA, but since October, their average PPG in losses has been just over 10 points. Troy will have to work to score, but, even if they give up some rushing yards to Army, they should still come away with a win. 

Troy is on a 6-game win streak and five of those have gone under this total. They win this one somewhere in the neighborhood of 28-14 or 31-10!

Wake Forest vs #15 North Carolina UNDER 77

Will this be a high-scoring game? Yes. This won’t be a 17-14 sloppy game. These are two top-20 offenses that are facing off.  However, it is interesting that the Over has hit in only 5 of 9 games for North Carolina and 4 of 9 for Wake Forest. 

This total of 77 has been hit by North Carolina three times (once against FCS Florida A&M) and only once by Wake Forest in the crazy game against Clemson. All of those four instances were in September. The only total that has gone over 70 points between either one of these teams since then was the Tar Heels 38-35 win over Duke on October 15th.

Wake Forest actually plays decent defense. We cannot say that about North Carolina. UNC is 104th in points allowed, 120th against the pass and 105th against the run statistically. UNC also grades poorly according to PFF – lower than 100 in total defense, run defense and coverage. 

Wake Forest is firmly middling statistically, but, in terms of PFF grades, they are one spot ahead of Bama inside the Top-10! I don’t know that I necessarily agree with the PFF ranking, as Wake has given up over 40 points twice. They can bow up however, as they have held teams to 15 points or fewer three times.

UNC is sitting at 8-1, but they have skimmed by with some close victories against some weak opponents. They beat Virginia, Duke and Miami all by three points.

Wake Forest has also been underperforming recently, dropping games to Louisville and NC State as favorites. I think Wake gets back on track here and controls clock to beat UNC while keeping Heisman candidate Drake Maye on the sideline.

Sam Hartman will have to keep the INTs down, as he’s had six of his nine picks in the last two games. This UNC defense is the right one to get him back on track,

This could be one of those crazy high-scoring games, but neither of these teams is clicking on all cylinders. I’ll agree with the majority of cash bets and take the Under!

Other Bets I Like:

• WKU -12.5 vs Rice
• Penn State -10 vs Maryland
• FIU +15.5 vs FAU
• Kansas +3.5 @ Texas Tech
• Liberty vs UConn OVER 45
• Ohio State vs Indiana OVER 58

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top-rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.

The post Bogman’s College Football Week 11 Best Bets (2022) appeared first on BettingPros.