College Football Week 11 Odds, Picks & Predictions: UAB vs. North Texas (2022)

Nov 11, 2022 - 2:32 PM

Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 11 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s game UAB vs. North Texas.

And check out the rest of our Week 11 college football game previews and picks:

• East Carolina vs. Cincinnati
• Colorado vs. USC
• Kansas State vs. Baylor
• LSU vs. Arkansas
• Notre Dame vs. Navy
• Louisville vs. Clemson
• Georgia vs. Mississippi State
• TCU vs. Texas
• North Carolina vs. Wake Forest
• Alabama vs. Ole Miss
• Maryland vs. Penn State
• South Carolina vs. Florida
• Tennessee vs Missouri
• Troy vs Army

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 11 College Football Power Rankings >>

College Football Week 11 Odds, Picks & Predictions: UAB vs. North Texas

UAB QB Dylan Hopkins returned to practice on Tuesday. Afterward, UAB HC Bryant Vincent told reporters that Hopkins is fully healthy and will start Saturday against North Texas.

This is huge news for the Blazers, whose season was torpedoed last month when Hopkins was knocked out of the WKU game on the second play of the second drive with a concussion. UAB’s offense went into the tank from there.

The Blazers subsequently lost three straight to fall to 4-5. UAB has not finished with less than six wins since 2014 – the season before the administration blew up the football program. Every full season from their return in 2017 through last year, UAB won a minimum of eight games.

So we’ve got a proud program in a do-or-die situation to reach bowl eligibility – next week brings a road trip to LSU before finishing with Louisiana Tech – that is returning to full strength.

This is a good situational spot, and UAB matches up well. North Texas’ balanced spread offense forces opponents to tackle in space. If you can’t, the Mean Green will play bully for the afternoon. If you can, you tie UNT’s hands behind its back.

UAB’s defense ranks No. 15 in tackling rate. UAB’s awesome G5 pass defense matches up well against UNT QB Austin Aune, who has thrown for 2,753 yards with a 28/11 TD/INT rate this year. He’s flattered by those numbers. Aune’s 21/16 PFF big-time throws against turnover-worthy plays are more indicative of his play.

Aune doesn’t know what he’s getting into here. North Texas has faced a comical procession of horrible defenses. And I do mean comical. UNT has played only three opponents with top-100 SP+ defenses – UTEP, FAU, and WKU – and none in the top 75. Here’s the thing about UTEP, FAU, and WKU: They all have horrid pass defenses. They’re in the top 100 SP+ because of their run defenses.

I haven’t fully quantified this, but it seems very likely that Austin Aune has faced the worst procession of pass defenses of any quarterback in the nation. UAB’s above-average FBS pass defense will be, by an enormous margin, the best pass defense he’s faced all year. I expect multiple Aune interceptions.

And unfortunately for Aune, UNT’s run game may not be clicking as usual. North Texas was without lead RBs Oscar Adaway and Isaiah Johnson for last Saturday’s game versus Florida International. Their statuses for this game are up-in-the-air.

UAB lets off some steam by whipping UNT by double-digits.

The pick: UAB -5.5

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