Bogman’s College Football Week 12 Best Bets (2022)

Nov 17, 2022 - 8:37 AM

Scott Bogman returns with his favorite bets for the Week 12 college football slate.

Week 11 results: 6-4
2022 Season Record: 64-46

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 8 College Football Power Rankings >>

#6 LSU -14.5 vs. UAB and OVER 52.5

I feel like I’m in the minority taking the Tigers at home this weekend, and I’m a little surprised by it. LSU is by no means the cleanest No. 6 ranked team we’ve ever seen, but I think they match up well with UAB. In four of UAB’s five losses this season, they have given up over 150 yards rushing, and LSU has hit that mark in eight of 10 games so far. The only two games in which LSU didn’t cross the 150 yards rushing mark happens to be their two losses to Florida State in Week 1 and Tennessee in Week 6.

UAB has a solid defense, specifically in PFF grade, as they are ranked inside the Top 10. LSU has given up pressure to the QB, allowing the 4th most sacks in the country (39), but UAB hasn’t taken advantage of a foul line yet, with 17 total sacks. The UAB defense has only had more than two sacks three times against FCS, Alabama A&M, Rice (in a loss), and MTSU. According to my friends at CFB Winning Edge, the OL for LSU ranks 9th in position strength nationally, and UAB is below 100 on the defensive line. It’s hard for me to imagine LSU not putting up 200 yards rushing with a solid combo of Josh Williams and John Emery at RB and team-leading rusher QB Jayden Daniels.

The more considerable discrepancy will be UAB’s offense against this LSU defense, particularly in the run game. LSU doesn’t look great statistically against the run sitting at just above average, allowing just over 140 yards per game, but they have faced some tough running offenses so far this season. LSU has faced Arkansas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Florida, Tennessee, and Auburn. Those teams average at least 190 yards rushing per game so the stats will be a bit more skewed than most. UAB has an NFL prospect in DeWayne McBride, who is 2nd in the nation in rushing yards behind only Illinois RB Chase Brown and saw the return of their starting QB, Dylan Hopkins, after two weeks.

UAB grades out well offensively, too, but again, I worry about the discrepancy in overall talent as my guys at CFBWE have this as a top-10 defense against a team closer to 100 in terms of talent, obviously in LSU’s favor. I feel like LSU will be able to do whatever they want against this UAB defense, leading to UAB steering away from the run game to play catch up, which is away from their strength. It’s a bad combo for UAB, which should make this game lopsided.

LSU will play down sometimes, and they seemed to do that last week on the road against Arkansas. I’m guessing the betting public thinks they will be looking ahead to Texas A&M next week. For a team in the playoff picture, I have to believe that last week was a wake-up call for LSU. If the close call against Arkansas wasn’t, this is still LSU’s Homecoming game under the lights in Death Valley. LSU has put up, on average, just over 35 PPG at home this season, but I feel like this game is in the neighborhood of 42-17, if not uglier, in LSU’s favor. LSU needs to dominate to impress voters, they should want to play well in their last home game, and while UAB won’t lay down, I think they’ll be run over in this one.

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App State -16 vs. Old Dominion

I like App State here because they still need a win to become bowl eligible, and with only two games left, this is a game they HAVE to win. For App State, it’s either win this week at home against a team they are more than a two-TD favorite against or go on the road next week to a much better opponent in Georgia Southern. ODU is ripe for the picking right now; they are on a four-game losing streak and haven’t scored a TD since Ali Jennings caught one in the 2nd quarter against Georgia State on October 22nd.

Speaking of Ali Jennings, he is the Monarchs leading WR by over 500 yards, and he is going to miss the last two games of the season after foot surgery he had on Monday. Jennings was injured in the game at Marshall in Week 10, and between that game and their one last week against James Madison, Old Dominion has scored 3 points. App State is above average on defense; they grade out in the top 35 on PFF, are closer to 100 in talent on CFBWE, and statistically rank 61st in scoring, 27th against the pass, and 49th against the run. App State is better than they need to be to handle Old Dominion.

App State has been more inconsistent on defense, highlighted by giving up 63 to North Carolina in Week 1, then going to Texas A&M, and allowing only 14 but even a bad day against ODU won’t net many points. App State is way more consistent on offense, starting with a very solid run game that averages just under 190 yards per game, led by RBs Camerun Peoples and Nate Noel. App State has ended more drives with a passing TD, with Senior QB Chase Brice throwing 25 TDs to only 6 INTs. Old Dominion has a much stronger defense than offense, grading above average on PFF, but statistically, they have been rough. ODU ranks above average in scoring, only allowing 26.5 PPG but is 91st against the pass and 116th against the rush.  

It’s not a surprise that App State is favored by more than 2 TDs in this game, but I think the desperation of clinching a bowl birth makes this an incredibly lopsided game. App State is the superior team, playing in a homecoming game with their backs against the wall. It just so happens they are facing a lifeless Old Dominion team that was just eliminated from Bowl Contention. App State will come out swinging and put the boots to the Monarchs in this one, so they don’t have to tempt fate on the road against Georgia Southern next week!

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Fresno State -22.5 @ Nevada and OVER 54

Fresno State is HOT, and the Bulldogs are in the midst of a 5-game-win streak which also saw they’re starting QB Jake Haener return from injury three weeks ago. Nevada is on an eight-game losing streak after winning their first two games. The only game Fresno State lost with Jake Haener on the field from start to finish was Week 2 against an Oregon State team that is now ranked. It’s not surprising to see the Wolf Pack ranked low in grades and statistically, but one stat did catch my eye as they grade out above average in coverage and rank 59th against the pass allowing only 221 yards per game.

When I dug a little deeper into the schedule, I noticed that seven of their nine games against FBS opponents have been against offenses that currently rank 101st or worse in passing yards per game, and 4 of those seven are below 120th. San Jose State is by far the best passing team Nevada has played, and they surrendered 35 points and 340 yards passing. That wasn’t even Nevada’s worst game against the pass as they gave up 55 points and over 400 passing yards to the 9-1 FCS Incarnate Word Cardinals in their 3rd game of the season. Fresno State has averaged just over 38 points per game in the five games Jake Haener has started and finished, and I feel like they’ll sail past that total in this game.

Describing Nevada as inconsistent on offense is probably doing them a favor, as they have scored more than 20 points only once in their last seven games and only three times all season. 1st year HC Ken Wilson is doing everything he can, but when last years HC Jay Norvell left for Colorado State, he took eight transfers from Nevada, with 6 of those being offensive pieces. To counteract the mass exodus, Nevada brought in 10 offensive transfers, including their starting QB Shane Illingsworth, leading WR BJ Casteel, and three Offensive Lineman that have seen at least 150 snaps (Bryce Peterson, Kai Arneson, and Joey Capra). Ken Wilson was put in a bad spot trying to install a new playbook AND new players at the same time, and it’s gone about as expected for anyone in that position. Fresno State is firmly middling on defense, grading low but ranking decently statistically. The Bulldogs can be had on the ground as they are giving up over 167 yards per game (94th), but Nevada is barely mustering over 110 yards per game, ranking 114th in the nation.  

Fresno State is going to beat the brakes off Nevada in this game, they are humming offensively with Jake Haener back, and Nevada is sputtering to the finish line. This will be the fifth game in which Nevada has been a 20+ point underdog, and they have only covered once in the previous four. Fresno State also needs to win this game to keep their lead in the MWC West Division and potentially meet Boise State again in the MWC Championship game, this time with a healthy Jake Haener. These teams are heading in opposite directions, and I think this is going to be a dismantling of Nevada by Fresno State as they take one step closer to the Mountain West Conference Championship Game!

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Other Games I like:

• UTSA -13 @ Rice
• Missouri vs. New Mexico State OVER 46.5
• Buffalo vs. Akron UNDER 45.5
• Vanderbilt vs. Florida OVER 57.5
• East Carolina vs. Houston OVER 67.5

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