UTSA vs. North Texas: College Football Conference Championships Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

Dec 1, 2022 - 2:39 PM

Let’s take a look at our best bet for this weekend’s college football conference championship showdown: UTSA vs. North Texas.

And let’s take a look at this weekend’s other college football conference championship games:

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College Football Conference Championships Odds, Picks & Predictions: UTSA vs. North Texas

UTSA has won nine-straight since starting 1-2 (losses were to Houston and Texas). Don’t put much stock into last week’s sluggish win over UTEP. The Roadrunners fell behind 24-0 but finished on a 34-7 run for a non-cover win.

Last year, UTSA was even worse in the exact same Week 13 spot. UTSA lost to North Texas 45-23 as 10.5-point favorites. But importantly, UTSA beat Bailey Zappe’s WKU Hilltoppers in the CUSA title game a week later 49-41 to cover the number.

North Texas won its way in by staving-off Rice 21-17 over the weekend. Running back depth was one of North Texas’ biggest strengths this season, but it has taken a big shot this month. Lead-back Oscar Adaway III hasn’t played in November with an undisclosed injury, and Ayo Adeyi hasn’t played since the first game of the month with a leg issue.

UTSA has an RB injury of its own – RB Trelon Smith is iffy after he missed Saturday’s win over UTEP with an unspecified lower-body injury – but Smith has been in-and-out of the lineup all year and isn’t as valuable to the Roadrunners as Adaway and Adeyi are to the Mean Green. If Smith is out again, RB Kevorian Barnes will likely be the clear lead back again with Brenden Brady coming in off the bench behind him.

Both offenses are very good at preventing havoc. UTSA’s defense generates lots of it but should expect less big plays in this matchup. North Texas’s defense doesn’t generate much havoc anyway and doesn’t project for many of those plays against a UTSA offense that doesn’t cede them.

UTSA is a pass-first offense with a dazzling aerial attack. North Texas’ run defense is an abomination, while the Mean Green’s pass defense is merely very bad. UTSA won’t have any trouble moving the ball.

North Texas’ offense, meanwhile, wants to establish the run first. Unfortunately, UTSA’s defensive strength is shutting down the run. This is going to put pressure on UNT QB Austin Aune to make plays through the air.

Aune’s counting numbers are great – over 3,000 passing yards with a 31/11 TD/INT rate – but he’s been flattered by running it up on terrible teams. Aune only posted a PFF game grade over 75.0 in four games – UTEP, WKU, FIU, and Rice. WKU is the only team in that group that ranks in the top-90 SP+ defenses.

One area where Aune must have success for North Texas to win this game: The explosive passing game. This is one area where UNT’s offense has a pronounced advantage, with the No. 5 passing explosiveness offense squaring off against UTSA’s No. 103 standing in the same area.

North Texas is a bit of a smoke-and-mirrors paper-tiger bully. The Mean Green went 0-3 against top-60 SP+ teams (including UTSA), 1-4 against top-70 SP+ teams, and 6-1 against teams ranked No. 90 SP+ or lower.

My pick is UTSA. I lean the over – two strong offenses that run at top-25 adjusted paces against two sub-90 SP+ defenses – but the margins are too close to my adjusted total to pull the trigger on that.

First meeting: On Oct. 22, UTSA beat North Texas 31-27 in this same venue, the Alamodome. North Texas led 13-10 heading into the fourth quarter before the teams combined to explode for 35 points in the final frame. The last seven of which came with 15 seconds remaining, UTSA QB Frank Harris’ game-winning 10-yard TD pass to WR De’Corian Clark (who has since suffered a season-ending injury). UTSA out-gained UNT 495-347.

The pick: UTSA -8.5

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