Akron vs. Buffalo: College Football Conference Championships Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

Dec 1, 2022 - 2:39 PM

Let’s take a look at our best bet for this weekend’s college football conference championship showdown: Akron vs. Buffalo.

And let’s take a look at this weekend’s other college football conference championship games:

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College Football Conference Championships Odds, Picks & Predictions: Akron vs. Buffalo

This is a rescheduled regular season game from earlier this month, a game pushed-off because of snow conditions in Buffalo. The Bulls had a chance to achieve bowl eligibility last week, but coughed up a 30-27 decision to Kent State in OT to fall to 5-6. That makes this a straightforward proposition for Buffalo: Beat Akron, and you’re going bowling. Lose, and pack up your lockers.

Beating Akron might not be as easy a task as it appeared on the surface last week. Akron, which had lost nine-straight since beating an FCS team in its opener, destroyed NIU 44-12. Akron QB2 Jeff Undercuffler threw for 312 yards and three TD in place of the injured QB DJ Irons. Irons’ status for this game is unclear.

Last week’s Akron result was surprising, but it was also part-and-parcel of the uptick we’ve seen from them since MAC play started in October. Sure, Akron went 1-6 in those games. But four-of-the-six losses were by one-possession, and last time out Akron whipped NIU by 32.

Meanwhile, Buffalo has stumbled down the stretch after a luck-filled hot start. The Bulls have lost three-straight. So yes, this is a “do-or-die” proposition to go bowling – but Buffalo has been on that doorstep for all of November while failing to cross the threshold. Doubt has likely started to creep in.

To be fair, Buffalo had a 61% win expectancy in the loss to Kent State last week. But Kent State was playing for nothing. And the two games before that, Buffalo lost by 24 to lowly CMU and by 21 to Ohio.

Buffalo’s defense is good at keeping opponents off schedule, and Akron can’t generate explosive plays. This is the aspect of the matchup that most favors the Bulls. But pass-happy Akron should have some success through the air.

Buffalo will have its most per-play success through the air against Akron, but the Bulls are a run-first squad and likely aren’t going to change now. Plus, Buffalo may be without leading rusher RB Ron Cook Jr. again. Cook and WR3 Jamari Gassett’s status are unclear after the pair missed the loss to Kent State.

Without Cook, the Bulls recently have been leaning on running-QB Matt Myers to handle a larger percentage of the rushing load. That was particularly the case against Kent State, when Myers ran 21 times for 109 yards and three TD. Myers should prep for similar usage if Cook is out again. Akron’s leaky run defense should be just as generous as Kent’s was.

If you take out the Michigan State and Tennessee games in September, Akron either won outright or lost by single-digits in seven-of-nine games. Buffalo hasn’t beaten an opponent by 12-or-more since Oct. 15, and it did so only three times all season. This is too many points to give a plucky underdog against a stumbling favorite, motivated or not.

The pick: Akron +11.5

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