Bowling Green vs. New Mexico State: 2022 College Football Quick Lane Bowl Odds, Picks & Predictions (12/26)

Dec 22, 2022 - 1:41 PM

Here are Thor Nystrom’s best bets for the 2022 College Football Bowl Game: Quick Lane Bowl.

2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through Dec. 18): 8-2 ATS (80%)
2022 combined: 90-68-3 ATS (56.9%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

Bowling Green vs. New Mexico State: 2022 College Football Quick Lane Bowl Odds, Picks & Predictions

Monday, December 26 | 1:30 PM
Bowling Green (-3) vs. New Mexico State | Total: 48
ATL: NMSU -0.5 | ATT: 51.5

Bowling Green

• None reported

New Mexico State

• QB Diego Pavia (Injury)
• P Josh Carlson (Transfer portal)

QB1 Pavia suffered what has been forwarded as a minor injury on Dec. 3 against Valparaiso. If Pavia is sidelined, QB2 Gavin Frakes – who attempted 112 passes this year – will draw his fifth start of the year. P Carlson, who averaged 40.5 yards per boot, transferred to Arizona State.

Handicap

These teams have opposite identities on offense.

New Mexico State is a run-happy outfit that wants to move the chains by slowly chipping away at the yardage needed while keeping the clock moving. Bowling Green spreads the field with a pass-happy ethos, hoping to get the ball into space.

New Mexico State’s offensive identity projects to have more success, as Bowling Green’s run defense is mediocre, ranking No. 63 in success rate and No. 71 in explosion. NMSU rarely is stopped behind the line, ranking No. 2 in power success rate. BGSU’s run defense is No. 124 in the same category.

Meanwhile, Bowling Green’s pass-happy tendencies will be met with resistance as NMSU has a very good pass defense. The Aggies’ pass defense is the best thing either team will bring to the field in this game.

The Aggies’ pass defense ranks No. 30 in success rate and No. 6 in explosion. If that unit can indeed greatly hinder Bowling Green’s passing attack, the Falcons will be in for a stop-and-start day on offense filled with punts.

It’s shocking that NMSU HC Jerry Kill dragged this roster into bowl season in his first campaign. Nearly as surprising, Kill has never won a bowl game, 0-5 in his career. The grizzled veteran coach badly wants that first bowl win, and his team, which was playing its best football at the end of the season, figures to sell out for it.

New Mexico State desperately tried to reschedule its postponed game with San Jose State from October. When SJSU didn’t want to play it, NMSU reached out to every other FBS program that could play a 13th game without a waiver on conference title week. When none of them would, NMSU got a waiver to play an FCS team, and also got a waiver into bowl season (the Aggies finished 6-6 with two wins over FCS teams).

The Aggies will treat this game as the Super Bowl. We like them to spring the upset.

The pick: NMSU +3

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