Top NFL Week 2 Preseason Betting Picks: Cardinals vs. Chiefs (8/20)

Aug 20, 2021 - 10:12 AM

In the regular season, a Cardinals vs. Chiefs primetime matchup would be absolute must-watch TV. Two of the most exciting young quarterbacks and offenses in the NFL squaring off in what would almost promise to be a fireworks show on offense.

Unfortunately, this isn’t the regular season. It’s just the preseason, after all. But that doesn’t mean we can’t find some excitement when Arizona and Kansas City square off in an important regular-season tune-up. There’s plenty of value left in one key spot, and it’s my best bet of the night.

Before we begin, remember how volatile betting the preseason can be. Playing time is never certain, so remember to research and bet within your means.

Check out our consensus odds for this week’s preseason games >>

Arizona Cardinals vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3; O/U 41.5)

This total has taken some injections since opening at 37.5. It’s risen all the way up to 41.5 at some books, while it sits at 41 at others. If you can find 41.5 – this is where it currently sits on DraftKings – I obviously prefer that to 41. But I still like it at the lower number and like it down to 40.5, in fact.

This total is obviously heavily inflated, considering it’s jumped four whole points, and it’s clear why. Andy Reid told the media he plans on playing his starters for the entire first half on Friday night, causing an influx of bettors to blindly hammer the over, thinking they’re getting two full quarters of Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. Not so fast, however.

Many Chiefs beat writers are a bit skeptical of this claim, and with valid reason. Take a look at what Cody Main of Establish The Run dug up on Reid’s recent preseason playing time claims:

In 2019 Andy Reid said his starters would play into the second half of their dress rehearsal game, they played 15 snaps.

In Week 1 this preseason, Reid said the starters would play one quarter, they played 4 snaps.

Reid is once again claiming a half for his starters. pic.twitter.com/rsPLvqi5cQ

— Cody Main (@cmain7) August 19, 2021

If this trend is any indicator, and it looks to be a good one, we’ll be lucky if we get a quarter from the Chiefs starters. And what’s more: what do the Chiefs really need to prove? They’ve been the best team in the NFL over the last two years, and they’ve got two conference titles and a Super Bowl to show for it. They’re the only team I can remember in recent memory who can legitimately flip a switch on offense when they need to. So basically, even if the starters do play, I don’t expect anything outside the first few pages of the playbook: the basic stuff. They won’t be explosive because they don’t need to be.

As for Arizona, Kyler Murray didn’t play last week, and Kliff Kingsbury has yet to announce any plans for his quarterback and the rest of the starters. But it feels like Murray and company will get at least a quarter and maybe a series into the second frame. It’s rare to sit a quarterback and then ask him to play the entire first half of a meaningless game. If game one didn’t matter, game two isn’t all of a sudden taking on increased importance for a coaching staff.

So if we get two-and-a-half, maybe even three quarters, of the Cardinals’ backup offense on Friday, we should be in good shape to cash this under. They settled for four field goals against the Cowboys last week, so I’m not exactly fearful that Kingsbury is going to push the limit and go for it on a bunch of fourth downs. Clearly, getting out of dodge healthy is one of his top priorities.

All in all, this total climbed way too high because of blind bets based on one comment from Andy Reid. It’s too inflated, so I’ll gladly take the under here.

The Pick: Under 41.5

• Top NFL Week 2 Preseason Betting Picks: Washington vs. Bengals

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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.

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