Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Sep 11, 2021 - 10:59 AM

AFC East rivals meet in Foxboro as the 2021 NFL season gets underway on Sunday. Plenty of buzz centered around the quarterback for both franchises this summer. Whether it was rumors of Deshaun Watson (QB-HOU) to Miami or Cam Newton’s (QB-FA) eventual release in New England, all of that is now in the past, and both teams hope to challenge Buffalo for the division crown. This Week 1 matchup could set the tone for a competitive division in 2021.

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Details

• Opening Line: New England -2.5
• Current Line: New England -3
• Over/Under: 43.5
• Location: Gillette Stadium. Foxborough, MA
• Start Time: Sunday, September 5, 2021. 4:26 PM ET
• Last Meeting: Miami 22 vs. New England 12

Overview

Rookie Mac Jones (QB-NE) takes the reins for the Patriots and is immediately instilled as a 3 point home favorite. Jones looked the part of a franchise QB in camp. Now the rubber meets the road, and he will immediately meet the expectations of the Patriots fanbase, especially after they watched Tom Brady (QB-TB) raise the Lombardi Trophy in Tampa this February. Bill Belichick and staff should lean heavily on the run to help their rookie manage his first start. That means plenty of Damien Harris (RB-NE) and Rhomandre Stevenson (RB-NE) on the ground. 

On the other side of the ball, New England hopes their revamped defense can make strides after a poor showing in 2020. D’onta Hightower could be a key cog again for the Pats after he opted out last year. In addition, fellow linebacker and former Dolphin Kyle Van Noy is looking to exact some revenge after an ugly divorce from Miami. However, the Pats are not fully healthy as Stephon Gilmore was placed on PUP-R, leaving New England short in the defensive backfield.

Miami is rolling into the season with Tua Tagovailoa (QB-MIA) as their starter despite rumors of a blockbuster deal with the Texans. Tua was 6-3 as a starter in 2020, but 11 touchdowns and five interceptions in those games disappointed some Dolphins fans. The team did its job surrounding Tagovailoa with weapons at WR, drafting his college teammate Jaylen Waddle (WR-MIA) and signing Will Fuller (WR-MIA). The latter will miss Week 1 due to a one-game suspension.

Defense is the name of the game in South Beach. In 2020, this unit led the NFL in takeaways (29), finished second in passing TDs allowed (21), and sixth in points allowed per game (21.1). Xavien Howard restructured his contract as the vocal leader of the young group, which features rookies Jevon Holland and Jaelan Phillips. Head Coach Brian Flores has built an elite unit with a steady upward trajectory since he took over control. Do you think Miami’s defense will dominate Mac Jones and the Patriots? Join our Discord and find out what other bettors are thinking too.

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Trends

• New England went 7-9 ATS in 2020
• Totals for New England went UNDER 11 of 16 games in 2020
• Miami is 6-2 STRAIGHT UP in their last 8 games as an UNDERDOG of 2.5 points or more
• Miami was 11-5 ATS in 2020
• New England and Miami split their head to head series 1-1 in 2020

Bottom Line

The defenses will be on display in this clash. New England and Miami could both possess Top 10 defenses in 2021. So, look for both offenses to try to win the time of possession, avoid turnovers, and stay conservative in Week 1. The UNDER is very much in play. Miami matches up well with New England, making the visitor’s MONEYLINE appealing too. They’ve got the better defense, more experience at QB, and their weapons are a greater threat to score. 

Although, Mac Jones is the wildcard. Beating Cam Newton for the starter’s job isn’t the accomplishment it once would have been, but the Patriots believe he can lead them. As with any rookie, there will be growing pains, and Miami has the defensive horses to give any experienced QB a headache. Points will be at a premium. We like the UNDER a lot and the value on the Miami ML nearly as much. FanDuel Sportsbook has them posted at u43.5 (-110) and MIA ML (+132), respectively.

Prediction: Dolphins 20, Patriots 19

Pick: Miami ML +132 | 1.0 units, u43.5 -112 | 1.0 units

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Aaron Pags is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyTriage.

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