Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Sep 17, 2021 - 10:51 AM

Buffalo (0-1) visits Miami (1-0) as the home team looks to take early control of the AFC East. After topping New England in Week 1, the Dolphins could pressure the rest of the division if they can advance to 2-0 against the top two challengers for the top spot. This season brought newfound expectations on the loveable losers from Buffalo, and the team responded with a tight performance in front of the home crowd last Sunday against Pittsburgh, losing 23-16. It isn’t easy to point to Week 2 as a turning point, but it could end up being the Sunday that the winning team looks back on as the game that pointed the season in the right direction.

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Details

• Opening Line: Buffalo -2.5
• Current Line: Buffalo -3.5
• Over/Under: 47.5
• Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
• Start Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Last Meeting: Buffalo 56, Miami 26

Overview

The tendency is to overreact to Week 1, but we need to see the forest through the trees as a bettor. Yes, the Bills struggled to protect their QB, Josh Allen, especially on the interior, as Cameron Heyward and company were pressuring Allen all afternoon. Unfortunately, Buffalo didn’t get their signature big plays from the WRs either. Stefon Diggs reeled in nine catches for a measly 69 yards. Give the Steelers credit, but Buffalo needs to improve their passing game to fuel the quest for the division. There is no need to panic, but turning it around sooner than later would reduce Pepcid sales in Western New York.

Miami nearly let victory slip into the jaws of defeat in Week 1, but a Damien Harris fumble eight yards from the endzone wrapped up a nice win for the Dolphins. However, it wasn’t all roses for Brian Flores’ men. QB Tua Tagovailoa managed the game well but showed little playmaking ability with his arm. He completed 13 passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage yet went just 3/13 on throws of 10 yards or more. There wasn’t much of a run game to speak of either, so if Miami wants to take control of the AFC East this week, they will need to execute their offensive at a higher level than they showed last Sunday.

Defensively, both teams could stand to make some improvements heading into the matchup. Miami sacked QB Mac Jones just one time while Buffalo did the same with one lone sack on Ben Roethlisberger. Getting home needs to be a focus for Miami to disrupt the timing of Josh Allen and for Buffalo to force Tua to make a quick read, not allowing him to check to his pass-catchers underneath as he did against New England.

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Trends

• Buffalo is 5-0 straight up vs. Miami in the last five meetings
• Totals have gone OVER in 5 of the previous 5 games between these teams
• Buffalo is 3-2 ATS vs. Miami in their last 5 games played
• Miami ML is 5-4 in their last 9 games as an underdog
• Totals have gone UNDER in 10 of Miami’s last 17 games

Bottom Line

Buffalo has an excellent secondary that allows them to use the rest of their defense to focus on stopping the opposition’s rushing attack. Miami isn’t particularly strong at RB, so the Bills defense should control this contest reasonably well. The Dolphins’ secondary creates turnovers, but Josh Allen has limited them in his five career matchups with Miami. He has dominated this defense in his last five starts against it: 5-0, 15 passing TDS to 2 ints, while rushing for 3 more TDS. Until the Fish can figure out Allen, FanDuel Sportsbook‘s -3.5 (-110) spread is attainable. The OVER 47.5 (-120) might be slightly harder to come by if Miami can’t move the ball on the ground successfully.

Prediction: Buffalo 31, Miami 17

Picks: Buffalo -3.5 | 1.5 units, OVER 47.5 | 1.0 units

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Aaron Pags is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyTriage.

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