Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Sep 17, 2021 - 10:50 AM

Sunday’s matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Indianapolis Colts pits two teams generating a ton of overreaction from their Week 1 performances.

The Rams validated everyone’s Super Bowl futures by beating down Andy Dalton and the Chicago Bears on primetime. Meanwhile, people are flying off the Colts bandwagon after their 28-16 loss to Seattle.

All of this results in Los Angeles being short favorites on the road against a Colts team that’s still gelling together after a hectic offseason. Can Frank Reich’s crew keep it close against Sean McVay’s Rams? Let’s break it down:

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Details

  • Opening Line: Rams -1.5
  • Current Line: Rams -4
  • Total: 47.5 points

How dominant were the Rams against the Bears? 

On the surface, Los Angeles’ 34-14 victory over Chicago looks dominant. And there’s no doubt that the Rams were clearly the better team Sunday night. It wasn’t a fluke that they won, but it wasn’t quite as dominant as the final score would indicate.

Let’s start with the fact that Chicago drove the ball to the Rams’ 3-yard line before a false start and an end-zone interception by Dalton killed their momentum. The Rams also scored two of their touchdowns on busted coverages, including one where Van Jefferson should’ve been touched down by a Bears defender but wasn’t.

But besides those two explosive plays, the Rams were actually a bit underwhelming. Chicago held the ball for 35 minutes, had 24 first downs, and was only out-gained 386-322. The Rams also struggled to run the ball up until their final possession of the game. The Rams piled up 49 of their 74 rushing yards on their final drive of the game when the game was essentially out of reach.

Perhaps the most significant point of concern was the Los Angeles run defense. Chicago’s below-average offensive line managed to control the line of scrimmage in the run game, as the Bears rushed for 134 yards on just 26 carries. That could certainly be a problem against the Indianapolis running game.

Colts start slow after tumultuous offseason 

Indianapolis’ uninspiring loss to Seattle isn’t much of a surprise when you consider that key players like Carson Wentz and Quenton Nelson were out most of training camp with foot injuries and COVID concerns.

However, Indianapolis’ loss isn’t as bad as the 28-16 final score indicates. The game was actually pretty even, with Seattle out-gaining Indianapolis, 381-336. Indy also had more first downs.

The game turned late in the third quarter when Wentz was sacked and fumbled inside Seattle territory with the Colts down 21-10. If not for that fumble, it could’ve been an entirely different game.

It’s clear Wentz is still gaining chemistry with his pass-catchers after barely practicing with them this summer. Running backs Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines led the team with six receptions apiece, and that definitely wasn’t by design. I expect Wentz to develop better chemistry with receivers Michael Pittman, Zach Pascal, and Parris Campbell with a full week of practice.

While the Colts weren’t horrible defensively, there’s absolutely room for improvement. Indianapolis allowed only 254 passing yards and gave up 142 completed air yards. Indy also gave up 140 rushing yards, but that might’ve been more by design against Seattle’s explosive passing attack. Seattle’s passing game was efficient, but it wasn’t explosive.

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Bottom Line

The Bears established plenty of rushing lanes for tailbacks David Montgomery and Damien Williams all night long in Week 1. I’m expecting Indianapolis to have similar success.

The Colts have a stronger offensive line and a better running back in Taylor. While I’m not a Carson Wentz apologist, he’s more competent than Dalton and should perform better with another week of practice. L.A. will at least have to respect the Colts’ passing game.

I expect Indianapolis to control the trenches and have better discipline in the back end of their defense than Chicago did in Week 1. I trust Frank Reich to develop a successful game plan against a defense that I’m just a bit skeptical of.

One of the many keys to NFL betting is forgetting what you most recently saw. Consider my mind erased. I wouldn’t be surprised if Indianapolis won this game outright.

Picks: Colts +4, lean under 47.5

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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.

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