Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Sep 18, 2021 - 10:20 AM

Monday Night Football spotlights NFC North rivals, as Aaron Rodgers looks to rebound from a lousy Week 1 against new Lions QB Jared Goff. How bad was Rodgers in Week 1? His 3.8 YPA was nearly half that of his career 7.8 number. Goff and Detroit fell so far behind in their matchup with the 49ers. He dropped back to pass 71 times, finishing with 33 completions and 337 yards through the air. Goff will now be thrust into a rivalry that pit Matthew Stafford versus Aaron Rodgers for the previous, a one-sided rivalry. Rodgers was 12-4 head to head with Stafford. Can Goff flip the script against the Packer QB who missed significant time with the team this summer and looked out of sorts last Sunday?

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Pags NFL Picks YTD: 4-0-0 (+4.82 units)

Details

• Opening Line: Green Bay -10
• Current Line: Green Bay -11.5
• Over/Under: 48.5
• Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
• Start Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Last Meeting: Packers 31, Lions 24

Overview

Detroit played well last week against the San Francisco rushing attack late, part of the reason they were able to mount a near-comeback. After getting run over in the first half, the Lions tightened up their run defense and held the Niners to 2.5 yards per carry over their final 16 rushes of the game. If that kind of effort is around on Monday night, the onus falls on Aaron Rodgers to round into form quickly.

Green Bay’s secondary was torched in Week 1 by New Orleans QB Jameis Winston. Outside of a good effort from stud CB Jaire Alexander, the rest of the group allowed 13 completions on 14 targets to the receivers they were covering. Unfortunately, that won’t get it done in today’s NFL. The Packers will need to create pressure with their front seven this week to help their coverage unit improve on their poor performance last week.

Offensively, the Packers were abysmal last week. Rodgers posted a 38.6 QB rating. Aaron Jones and the rest of the RBs could only muster 43 yards rushing. Ten Packers caught passes, yet only Davante Adams had more than 19 yards receiving. It was a forgettable outing and one that should light a fire under this unit. Rodgers typically limits turnovers, but even he contributed to the poor effort with a multi-turnover outing.

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Trends

• Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 meetings with Detroit
• Totals have gone OVER 48.5 in 14 of Green Bay’s last 19 games overall
• Detroit is 8-9 ATS in its previous 17 games overall
• Totals have gone UNDER 48.5 in 14 of Detroit’s last 17 games overall
• Packers lead the all-time series 104-72-7

Bottom Line

Green Bay’s home opener will have a pretty different feel in 2021. As the writing is on the wall, this may be Aaron Rodger’s final season for the cheeseheads. The Packers got their doors blown off last week, but since 2019 they are 6-0 after losses. Five of those six wins were by double digits. You cannot use a single statistic from last week to corroborate the feeling that the Pack will come out firing, make a statement, and remind the national TV audience they were close to representing the NFC in the Super Bowl last February. Except for their opponent from Detroit, who has allowed 30 or more points in 11 of their previous 17 games. Nothing helps a good offense get back on track than a porous defense.

FanDuel Sportsbook has the Packers as 11.5 point favorites (-105), so it will take a Matt LaFleur-era after a loss effort to cover. Still, the talent differential here says this is closer to a two TD separation in reality. Green Bay will allow its share of points, likely when the game is already out of reach. The Packer detractors will forget all by the time the clock hits zeros on Monday night.

Prediction: Green Bay 37, Detroit 22

Picks: Green Bay -11.5 | 1.0 units, OVER 48.5 | 1.0 units

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Aaron Pags is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyTriage.

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