Carolina Panthers vs. Houston Texans Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Sep 22, 2021 - 10:23 AM

Two weeks into the newly minted 2021 NFL season, and both the Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans have surprised – for the better. The Panthers have started 2-0, while the Texans, purported to be one of the worst teams in NFL history, are 1-1, keeping pace with the Super Bowl contender Cleveland Browns last week.

Below we’ll take a closer look at the betting angle surrounding this game. And be sure to follow me on Twitter as I post or add plays on days we don’t offer a full write-up.

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Article Picks: 3-1 (+1.90u)

Details:

• Opening Line: O/U: 43.5 | CAR -7
• Current Line: O/U: 43.5 | CAR -7.5

Overview:

After squeaking by the lowly Jets in their season opener, the Panthers came out hot in Week 2, trouncing the New Orleans Saints 26-7 despite being +3 dogs at kickoff.

Sam Darnold was stellar, throwing for 2 touchdowns and 305 yards. Christian McCaffrey was his otherworldly self, combining for 137 yards and a touchdown.

While the offense is humming, it’s the defense that has been the pinnacle of their success. Through two games, Phil Snow’s defense leads the league with 10 sacks, and rookie CB Jaycee Horn is living up to expectations, allowing a mere 18 yards combined in his two starts to pair with an interception.

The Texans surprised many in Week 1 after dismantling the Jacksonville Jaguars 37-21 as +3 dogs. Granted, it was the Jaguars, but a win is a win.

Last week, they covered as +13.5 dogs against the Browns. Tyrod Taylor was 10-11 for 125 yards and a touchdown before succumbing to a hamstring injury. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks had 9 receptions for 78 yards and leads with 55% of team air yards through two games.

Taylor has already been ruled out for this showdown, so the Texans will turn to rookie quarterback Davis Mills to lead the offense. Mills is a third-round pick out of Stanford but has a high pedigree – ranking ahead of current NFL starters Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones in the 2017 recruiting class.

Below we’ll compare how these two team’s matchups metrically:

Numbers Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Average Offensive Snaps

• CAR: 71.5
• HST: 70.5 

% Run Plays:

• CAR: 42%
• HST: 47% 

% Pass Plays:

• CAR: 58%
• HST: 53%

EPA Per Run:

• CAR: -0.24
• HST: -0.20

EPA Per Pass:

• CAR: 0.17
• HST: 0.36

Offensively, these two teams are nearly identical from a statistical standpoint. Houston has gotten results from Taylor, Cooks, and their stable of running backs – While Carolina has gotten improved play from Darnold and possesses much more high-end talent with McCaffrey, DJ Moore, and Robbie Andersen. 

Trends:

• Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games
• Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams
• Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings

Bottom Line

The wildcard in this game is Davis Mills. Though projected as a prospect with upside, his regular-season sample size is too small to consider. Carolina’s strength is undoubtedly their defense, ranking #2 overall according to PFF. The masses will wrongly discount Taylor’s value to this team and assume it’s negligible, which is a mistake. Look for the Panthers to shut down the Texans’ run game, forcing Davis to throw while creating confusion and turnovers. I don’t anticipate Houston finding the endzone often in this one, leading to a low-scoring affair. 

Pick: Under 43.5 or better

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