NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 3 (2021)

Sep 22, 2021 - 11:15 AM

After Week 1, when nine underdogs (the most in 38 seasons in Week 1) won outright, things returned to somewhat “normalcy,” with six favorites losing outright. Of the six favorites that lost, the four biggest favorites from a moneyline perspective all won, with the Pittsburgh Steelers (-245 ML odds) being the biggest favorites to lose last week’s matchup.

All of our top recommended plays advanced for the second week in a row, including our two contrarian plays that likely give participants a huge leg up on their competitors if they used them and not more highly thought-of teams.

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 3 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

Safest Picks

Denver Broncos (-620), Cleveland Browns (-360), Carolina Panthers (-335), Arizona Cardinals (-330)

The Denver Broncos have made easy work of two inferior opponents (Giants, Jaguars) so far this week, outscoring them by a combined 50-26. The most impressive part is they won both games on the road on the east coast in consecutive weeks and finally head home to the friendly confines of Mile High Stadium. There, they await a second straight rookie quarterback to beat up on and one that is coming off a four-interception performance. At one point in the second half of last week’s loss to the Patriots, Jets quarterback Zach Wilson had as many completions as interceptions. The Broncos are not apologizing for their early schedule thus far, but it will be up to bettors to analyze if they are pretenders or contenders after they start 3-0.

Many likely used the Browns for survivor pools last week against the Texans, and they responded with a ten-point win in a game they never felt seriously threatened. They now face a 1-1 Bears team who could be starting Justin Fields in his first career game. Cleveland has some tape to scout Fields after he looked unimpressive, going 6-for-13 for 60 yards and an interception last week against the Bengals. Brighter days are likely ahead for Fields, and they may come quickly, just not in his first-ever road start against an AFC contender.

The Panthers were our contrarian play in Week 1 and are an even safer bet this week. There is always risk involved in backing a road team playing on a short week, as this is on Thursday night. However, with Davis Mills taking over as the starting quarterback for the Texans after Tyrod Taylor has been ruled out with a hamstring injury, Carolina looks even more enticing. The most worrisome thing in this matchup is if Carolina is complacent or has a hangover after their 26-7 drubbing of New Orleans. However, we respect Matt Rhule as a coach too much and trust he will have his guys focused and prepared to go 3-0.

The Arizona Cardinals escaped last week by the skin of their teeth as the Vikings missed a game-winning field goal as time expired. They should be in store for a much easier win this week against the 0-2 Jaguars, who have lost 15 consecutive games dating back to last year. Jacksonville’s defense allowed an average of 30 PPG to the Texans and Broncos offenses this year, so how do they expect to slow down Arizona’s high-scoring attack?

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Baltimore Ravens (-490), Buffalo Bills (-405), Pittsburgh Steelers (-235)

The Ravens earned a massive win on Sunday night in knocking off the Chiefs 36-35. They made just enough defensive plays to win and overcame several injuries at various positions. While their chances of beating Detroit on the road are not in serious doubt, Baltimore is coming off two emotionally grueling and physically demanding games, and it would be wisest to save them for a week when they can catch their collective breaths.

The Bills are coming off a 35-0 defeat of the Dolphins, yet still make our “risky plays” section because of the defense they are about to face. Washington’s front four can put pressure on Josh Allen while also making Buffalo a one-dimensional team. Look at how Buffalo’s offense fared against the Steelers defense at home in Week 1, and you will know why we advise staying away from them in survivor pools this week.

Which Pittsburgh Steelers team is going to show up this week against the Bengals? Is it the one that upset Buffalo in Orchard Park in Week 1, or the one that laid an egg last week to an undermanned Raiders team at home playing on a short week? How bad is Ben Roethlisberger’s pectoral injury, and how much will it limit him? I do not know the answer to those questions, and I do not want to risk my survivor pool life waiting to find out.

Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool

Las Vegas Raiders (-200)

The Raiders have to be classified as the most surprising 2-0 team to this point, given that they earned both wins as underdogs against playoff teams from a year ago in the Ravens and Steelers. Now they head home to host a Dolphins team who will likely have Jacoby Brissett under center again, as Tua Tagovailoa continues to nurse a rib injury suffered last week. Miami looked lifeless after Tua left last week and would be 0-2 if New England took better care of the football in Week 1. The Dolphins had a lot of hype before the season, but this is not the same team without Tua. Meanwhile, we all may have mistakenly slept on how good the Raiders are, and this is a great week to use them since you are likely not picking them in survivor pools in any of their six divisional games. However, this is only a play provided quarterback Derek Carr’s ankle is healthy and that he is active on Sunday.

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