Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Sep 24, 2021 - 9:58 PM

Week 3 brings us a marquee AFC West matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs. This game will be one the most anticipated of the week, so I’ll spare you the rest of this introduction.

Below we’ll take a closer look at the betting angle surrounding this game.

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Details:

• Opening Line: O/U: 55 |KC -7
• Current Line: O/U: 54.5 | KC -6.5

Overview:

Both these teams enter this divisional matchup coming off losses. Los Angeles fell to the Cowboys 17-14 on a last-second field goal, while Kansas City blew two 11-point leads by taking their foot off the gas, per usual.

The Chargers stymied themselves with penalties, continuously stalling drives, and having two touchdowns called back.

The Chiefs have an issue of becoming lackadaisical when leading and playing down to their opponent’s level. Not to mention their porous defense that would have trouble stopping the Miami Sharks – no offense, Willie Beamen.

If not for a punting mishap by the Browns in Week 1, the Chiefs could be 0-2.

Below we’ll compare how these two team’s matchups metrically:

Numbers Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Average Offensive Snaps

• LA: 78.0
• KC: 58.5

% Run Plays:

• LA: 32%
• KC: 33%

% Pass Plays:

• LA: 68%
• KC: 67%

 EPA Per Run:

• LA: -0.14
• KC: -0.27

 EPA Per Pass:

• LA: 0.10
• KC: 0.47

These teams are eerily similar in running and passing plays—essentially executing their play calling with the same balance. Both teams’ running game leaves much to be desired, but the Chiefs hold a significant advantage in EPA per Pass. The Chargers have solid receiving options in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are more explosive.

This game features two of the top quarterbacks in the game, as well. Patrick Mahomes needs no introduction, but Justin Herbert is proving elite after being drafted sixth overall in the 2020 NFL draft.

Let’s analyze their advanced statistics from Week 1 per PFF:

Overall Grade:

• Herbert: 78.2
• Mahomes: 70.2

Passer Rating When Clean:

• Herbert: 83.3
• Mahomes: 122.1

Passer Rating Under Pressure:

• Herbert: 97.0
• Mahomes: 120.1

Big-Time Throw %:

• Herbert: 4.85%
• Mahomes: 1.30%

Turnover-Worthy Play%

• Herbert: 3.88%
• Mahomes: 3.90%

Herbert may grade out better overall, but Mahomes has a clear edge in passing, regardless of the circumstance. Both players have big arms and like to sling it, but Herbert has been dialed in with his 4.85 big-time throw% in the young season.

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Trends:

• Road team is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings
• Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings
• Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Kansas City

 Bottom Line

Patrick Mahomes is 4-2 in his career against the Chargers, but all but one of those games came down to the final minutes in the fourth quarter. I believe Brandon Staley’s two-high defense should give Mahomes and his offense fits. At the same time, Justin Herbert should have his way against the Chiefs’ defense that is ranked last in the league according to PFF. This game has shootout written all over it but look for both teams to stay close.

Pick: Chargers +6.5

Check out our consensus odds on all of this week’s NFL games >>

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Jordan Anderson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jordan, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Jordan_A03.

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