Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Sep 25, 2021 - 10:29 AM

Sunday Night Football almost always treats us to a great game, and this week’s battle between the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers should be no different.

Aaron Rodgers and his Packers head to the Bay Area after a convincing win over division rival Detroit Monday night. Meanwhile, San Francisco heads home after two straight wins on the East Coast to open the season.

Who has the edge between these NFC contenders? Let’s break it down.

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Details 

• Opening line: San Francisco -2.5
• Current line: San Francisco -3
• Total: 50

Banged up 49ers finding ways to win

San Francisco’s injury luck couldn’t get much worse than last season. And while the 49ers haven’t experienced as many devastating injuries to star players, the injury bug still hasn’t disappeared.

San Francisco’s secondary was already the weak point of this talented defense. But it’s particularly thin after Jason Verrett tore his ACL. The Niners have also been without cornerback Emmanuel Moseley, who’s also dealing with a knee injury. Moseley could play Sunday, but this cornerback group is still rather thin.

That lack of depth in the back four hasn’t cost San Francisco in its first two games. The Niners have allowed just 5.7 net yards per pass attempt against Jared Goff and Jalen Hurts. But a starting cornerback duo of Josh Norman and Deommodore Lenoir could be exploited by Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. Even with Moseley back, the 49ers might not have an answer for stopping Adams one-on-one.

Offensively, Trey Sermon and newly signed Trenton Cannon appear to be the healthy running backs on the roster. The Ohio State rookie has logged two limited practices after being concussed on his first career carry last week against Philadelphia. Backfield mates Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) and JaMycal Hasty (ankle) both didn’t practice.

While Kyle Shanahan’s outside zone run scheme has turned unheralded backs into studs before (see Raheem Mostert), he’ll have to trust a rookie who was inactive in Week 1, and a player signed a week ago as his lead backs. Fortunately, the Packers’ defensive scheme almost invites teams to run on them, as they’ve yielded 4.8 yards per attempt through two games.

Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is also under scrutiny after an uninspiring performance in Week 2. Garoppolo missed throws throughout the day and only threw for 189 yards and a touchdown in San Francisco’s victory. If Garoppolo struggles again, the calls for Trey Lance will only get louder.

Green Bay seeking statement win 

The Packers bounced back after a terrible showing in the season opener against New Orleans, quieting the doubters who thought Aaron Rodgers was intentionally tanking the season. However, my biggest questions about Green Bay pertain to the defense.

New defensive coordinator Joe Barry didn’t bring the best game plan into Monday night’s win. During the first half, Barry primarily tried to get pressure with his four-down linemen, a strategy that might’ve worked had Za’Darius Smith not been on injured reserve. The Packers surrendered points on three of Detroit’s first four drives in the first half before adjusting at the intermission and shutting down the Lions with more blitz packages.

Barry’s questionable game plan in Week 2 against Goff has me concerned about how he’ll scheme against San Francisco. Smith’s absence has been felt, as Green Bay only has one sack on the season. Barry will need to dial up pressure to attack the immobile Garoppolo in the pocket.

It’ll also be interesting to see how Barry utilizes cornerback Jaire Alexander, as San Francisco’s biggest pass-catching threats are Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. I could see Alexander shadowing Samuel while the Packers double team and bracket Kittle, forcing San Francisco’s unproven ancillary weapons to beat them.

Bottom Line

This should be a great game, but I’m ultimately siding with the underdog Packers. Rodgers should be able to get whatever he wants against San Francisco’s battered secondary. And Green Bay should find success on the ground against a 49ers defense that’s given up five net yards per rush attempt this season.

Defensively, I’m banking on Barry bringing a better game plan to the table. The Packers should be able to generate pressure against Garoppolo. And while I’m a big fan of Samuel and Kittle, San Francisco doesn’t have a proven weapon that can expose cornerback Kevin King, Green Bay’s weakest link defensively.

The Packers are also 5-3 ATS under Matt LaFleur as a road underdog, while San Francisco is 5-11-1 ATS as a home favorite under Kyle Shanahan.

Pick: Packers +3

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