Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Sep 25, 2021 - 10:10 AM

The Las Vegas Raiders are off to a hot start this year starting, 2-0 against two great teams in Baltimore and Pittsburgh. They are also 2-0 covering the spread, which we love seeing coming into an away game against the Miami Dolphins, who lost their starting QB this week. Las Vegas has been the number one offense in the NFL. They are versus the second-worst offense in the NFL this week. This week creates value when betting on this game. Last week was an outlier for the Dolphins. The Dolphins won’t get shut out every game. With Tua getting hurt early, Brissett wasn’t ready to play. After a week of preparation, that will change. Here are some of the reasons bettors will be able to take advantage of this game. 

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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Details

• Opening Lines: Miami Dolphins -1, Total 46.5
• Last Game: December 26, 2020, Miami Dolphins 26-25
• Winning Streak: Miami Dolphins (2)
• The last time the Arizona Cardinals lost to Jacksonville was November 27, 2005
• Maimi is 10-4 against the spread in its last 14 games
• Miami is 5-1-1 against the spread in its last seven games against Las Vegas
• Las Vegas is 2-0 against the spread this year

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Overview

Miami is going to be better this week than they were last week. They haven’t proved they are good enough to push the Moneyline, but the total points have been going down throughout the week after they got shut out against the Buffalo Bills last week. That creates value on the over. Las Vegas’ defense is on the lower end compared to other NFL teams, which means Miami can score against them. This year Miami has played two of the top five defenses and divisional opponents. Before last week, the last time Miami scored less than 19 points was September 13, 2020. That means to hit the over, Las Vegas needs to score 25 points, which they have done their last seven games. The total has a chance to continue to drop until Sunday. That will add to the value of the over. 

Las Vegas has played two of the best NFL teams in Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Historically Miami covers the spread against Las Vegas, but with the quality of wins Las Vegas has this year, it is hard to take them to cover this matchup. Las Vegas can move the ball well this year. They are averaging 458 yards and 30 points per game, and Miami doesn’t have the Tua to spark the offense. Defensively these teams are almost identical. Las Vegas is allowing 368.5 yards and 22 points per game. Miami is allowing 353 yards and 25.5 points per game. This game will come down to offense, and Las Vegas has the better offense this year.

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Bottom Line

This week is about the value plays. The betting lines are moving in the opposite direction, which is a great sign for the value. Miami’s offense will be better, and they are playing the best offense in the NFL currently. Brissett is not good enough to lead the Dolphins to win, but they will score points. Las Vegas Raiders have a great chance to cover with Brissett leading the Dolphins. The plays for this game are the over and Las Vegas to cover -3. Take the value this week with these picks.

Picks:  Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-145) & Total Over 44 (-115)

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Cameron Lynch is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Cameron, check out his archive and follow him @captron26.

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