NFL Betting: What We Learned from Week 3 (2021)

Sep 27, 2021 - 10:25 AM

The National Football League will always be the leader in drama because it continues to twist storylines every week. Whatever we think we know can be erased in an instant, while other opinions take much longer to form.

We still don’t have many answers three weeks into the year, but we do have some key moments from which we can learn. That’s important in any season — learn as we go — but it is especially true as we continue through the early stages of the longest season on record.

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The Buccaneers Finally Lost

It was unbelievable to see the number of people and places that actually talked about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers possibly recording a perfect 17-0 regular season, but the idea is no longer valid. Three games into the year, Tampa Bay lost, and it marks the end of a streak that began just after last Thanksgiving — and obviously extended through the playoffs.

The reality is that Tampa Bay had been challenged in each of the first two games of the year and were only now caught out of position against what might be the best team in the conference — the Los Angeles Rams. The Buccaneers were given a fight by the Cowboys on Opening Night and were actually in a close game in the fourth quarter against the Falcons. Only via two defensive touchdowns did the Buccaneers finally pull away and make their margin-of-victory as large as it was. Really, they were a solid but imperfect team. Just as their record now depicts.

Where does Tampa Bay go from here? Literally, to New England for an emotional reunion between quarterback Tom Brady and his former franchise. That will be enough of a storyline to keep the Buccaneers in the spotlight even after Sunday’s loss.

The AFC West is Upside Down

The Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders are a combined 6-0, the Los Angeles Chargers are 2-1, and the Kansas City Chiefs — the winner of the AFC for back-to-back seasons — are 1-2 and sit alone at the bottom of the division.

Something is not right.

In defense of the division itself, the Broncos have had possibly the easiest schedule in the National Football League — games against the Jets, Giants, and Jaguars — while the Chiefs faced the Chargers, Ravens, and Browns. In reality, the standings aren’t true depictions of the teams’ respective talent levels. Still, they are the numbers, and no one can take back any wins.

The Chiefs will be fine. The Broncos will face tougher competition. The Raiders and Chargers will have their ups and downs. For now, we can start looking for value in how these teams will regress toward the mean in the coming weeks.

The Jets are the Worst Team in the League

Pick a metric, any metric. Chances are the New York Jets rank last in the category.

It’s a disaster on all accounts, but if we need to highlight the point, just look at the twenty total points the team has scored through three games. 12 quarters of football, 180 minutes, and 20 points. By comparison, 18 teams played on Sunday afternoon in the early slate of football. Nine of them scored at least 20 points. Half of the teams in play.

Fear not. There’s a light at the end of the tunnel! And it’s a good one. No, not for the actual Jets — they have absolutely no redeeming qualities yet — but for the odds and spreads we will soon see for New York. By virtue of having the worst point differential in the league — by an obscene margin, too — the Jets will be heavy underdogs for the foreseeable future. The numbers will grow to the point where we can actually find value with New York.

This is why it’s important to pay attention to every team in the league, not just the ones who are winning games.

The Seattle Seahawks are in Last Place

I wrote about it in last week’s article, but the Seattle Seahawks were already in a somewhat precarious position after being the only team in the NFC West without a 2-0 record. With Week 3’s loss in Minnesota, the Seahawks have fallen to 1-2 and are actually in trouble.

“In trouble” is a relative term in that the team is absolutely capable of winning games and turning the season around from here. Still, it is relative and, compared to the talent and records of the other NFC West members, Seattle has a lot of ground to cover.

The interesting element will be how the Seahawks are viewed in the near future. Will people buy-in and expecting this historically successful franchise to keep winning games, or will the bandwagon empty quickly? The most likely approach by others will be to wait and see. That means we should be aggressive and buy or sell according to the matchup.

The AFC North is Wild

The Cincinnati Bengals made a statement with their road victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Baltimore Ravens avoided crushing heartbreak thanks to a record-breaking game-winning field goal. The Cleveland Browns took care of business at home and are now just a collapse against the Chiefs away from a 3-0 record. Overall, the division is wild.

And it’s up for grabs.

To date, Cleveland has the best resume thanks to its almost-perfect record with a loss only to the Chiefs, but the Ravens beat the Chiefs and were able to find a win when it seemed almost impossible at the end. The Steelers appear to be forgotten but also handed the Bills their only loss of the year.

This has all the makings of a division that will go down to the wire and remain unsettled until late December or even early January. The best course of action is not to bury any single team just yet. Cincinnati winning outright as an underdog is a good sign as to why.

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola. He has also been one of the industry leaders in NFL against-the-spread picks over the last 7 years.

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