Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Oct 2, 2021 - 12:49 AM

Among the many intriguing NFL betting matchups in Week 4 is this showdown between two AFC teams desperate for a victory. The Indianapolis Colts will look to notch their first win of the year in their fourth attempt this Sunday when they travel to South Florida to take on the Miami Dolphins. After suffering their second consecutive defeat last week, the Dolphins will also be gunning to get their season back on track. The betting oddsmakers have given a slim edge to the home team ahead of this contest.

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Details

Opening Lines: Dolphins -2.5; O/U 45.5
Current Lines: Dolphins -2; O/U 43
Location: Hard Rock Stadium — Miami Gardens, FL
Start Time: 1 p.m. EDT
TV: CBS
Last Meeting: November 10, 2019 — The Dolphins defeated the Colts 16-12 in Indianapolis.

Overview

The first three weeks have gone very badly for a Colts team that aspired to win the AFC South Division coming into the year. Not only are they now 0-3 but the most recent defeat came courtesy of the division rival Tennessee Titans. The fact that Carson Wentz was even able to start last Sunday’s NFL betting matchup after spraining both ankles in Week 2 is borderline incredible. Unfortunately, he was quite ineffective, finishing just 19/37 passing for 194 yards. Wideout Michael Pittman Jr. led the team with 68 yards receiving but caught only six of 12 targets. T.Y. Hilton is reportedly getting closer to making his return, but that won’t happen this week. Indianapolis’ lack of receiver depth has shown in his absence.

Another real concern for the Colts after three games is the regression of the defense. While the unit has been fairly stout against the run, they rank just 29th in adjusted efficiency against the pass entering their Week 4 NFL betting contest. That said, the Colts’ defense did come away with three takeaways last week, including interceptions by Kenny Moore and Darius Leonard. Too bad the offense failed to capitalize on them. In addition, Indy will be without star offensive lineman Quenton Nelson after he suffered an ankle injury last week.

With second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa landing on IR, the Dolphins handed the reigns to former Colts signal-caller Jacoby Brissett last week. He acquitted himself quite well, passing for 215 yards and playing a turnover-free game in the team’s overtime loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. If anything, Brissett seemed to fall victim to conservative play-calling whenever Miami took the lead. One need not look any further than rookie wideout Jaylen Waddle’s stat line for supporting evidence. Waddle had a full dozen receptions last week, yet finished with only 58 yards receiving. That equates to an average of 4.8 yards per reception. Talk about Charlie Checkdown!

In reality, Brissett is actually more willing and capable of pushing the ball down the field than Tagovailoa. How these next couple of games go could be huge in dictating whether or not the latter regains the starting job upon returning from IR. Brissett also brings some rushing ability, particularly in short-yardage situations. He did record a rushing touchdown in last week’s NFL betting loss. Tight end Mike Gesicki also had a busy game with 10 catches for a team-leading 86 yards. Brandon Jones picked up a pair of sacks last week to lead a defense that ranks seventh in overall adjusted efficiency, per Football Outsiders.

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Trends

  • The Colts are 1-2 ATS and 1-2 to the over this season.
  • The Dolphins are 2-1 ATS and 1-2 to the over this season.
  • Six of the Colts’ last eight road games have gone over the total.
  • Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
  • Colts are 6-2 SU in their last eight head-to-head meetings against the Dolphins.

Bottom Line

With an 0-3 record coming in, it’s no secret that the Colts desperately need to emerge from this game victorious. Unfortunately, it’s really hard to make a great case for a reeling team as road underdogs in this spot. I stand firmly in the group of analysts who believe the Dolphins are better off with Jacoby Brissett under center than Tua Tagovailoa. Of course, there’s also the “revenge game” factor this week specifically.

Reports have indicated that Carson Wentz is expected to be in much better shape this Sunday with his ankle injuries than he was last week. Even so, the Colts’ offense has been very underwhelming through the first three weeks. Their second-half charge against the  Los Angeles Rams prior to Wentz leaving the game has been the lone bright spot. Given the Dolphins’ strong adjusted efficiency ranking on defense, it’s tough to envision the Colts having much success again this week. Miami has also forced five turnovers already this season. In the end, look for Brian Flores’ squad to get back on track at home this week. 

Pick: Dolphins -2

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.

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