Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Oct 2, 2021 - 12:41 AM

Minnesota is finally coming off a great win against the Seattle Seahawks. After two close losses during their first two weeks of play, Minnesota needed that win. Seattle is a great football team, and so is Arizona. The Vikings have gotten better on offense after their Week 1 loss. When it comes to run defense, the Vikings are the #30 in the league. That is not a good sign, going against a team that runs the ball 64% of the time. 

Cleveland has had a better start to the season. They are 2-1, with their only loss being a close game against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Browns want to run the ball. They have run the ball 102 times compared to the 59 times they have thrown the ball this year. When they do throw the ball, they are efficient, with a 74% completion rating. That will be a factor in this game since the Vikings are the #11 passing defense in the NFL. Cleveland is the #22 passing defense in the NFL. That is going to be a big part of this game.

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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Details

• Opening Lines: Cleveland Browns -1, Total 47.5
• Last Game: October 29, 2017, Minnesota Vikings 33-16
• Current Winning Streak: Minnesota Vikings (1)
• Minnesota Viking lead series 12-4
• Minnesota is 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games
• Cleveland is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games
• The over has hit in 4 of Cleveland’s last 6 games
• The over has hit in 5 of Minnesota’s last 6 games

Overview

Dalvin Cook is still questionable this week for Minnesota. Even if he does not play, they have a capable running back in Alexander Mattison. That should not be a factor for bettors when deciding the outcome of this game. They are averaging 128 rushing yards per game, but they will be going up against one of the best run defenses in the league this week. That means we will see some regression on their rushing game. Minnesota will have to throw the ball against Cleveland, which is a good sign for the total points going over because Kirk Cousins has a 74% completion rating and a couple of great wide receivers to throw it. Both of these teams combined have hit the total points over 9 out of their last 12 games. This year both of these teams went over 47.5 points in both Week 1 and Week 2. That means this is a perfect matchup for the trend to continue.

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The Cleveland Browns have a dynamic running attack and will score points against the terrible Minnesota run defense. They are averaging 175 rushing yards per game, and Minnesota is giving up 120 rushing yards per game to opposing offenses. Both Cleveland running backs are going to be capable of having big days. Statistically, this is just an awful matchup for the Minnesota defense. The Browns are averaging 30 points per game which means we need 17 out of Minnesota. Minnesota is averaging 29 points per game. Just by averages, this game covers 47.5. Throw in the bad defensive matchup for both teams, and this is a good value for bettors going into Week 4. Even defensively, the numbers make sense. Minnesota is giving up 25 points per game. Cleveland is giving up 18 points per game, but if you throw out the start from Rookie QB Justin Fields they are giving up 27 points per game. 

Bottom Line

Cleveland is a complete team on offense and defense this year. They play to their strengths which are weaknesses for Minnesota. I like Cleveland to cover the -2 point spread. With Minnesota able to throw the ball and Cleveland able to run the ball, this game has a great chance to be a shootout, so I like the over on total points. Defensively both of these teams do not match up against each other. Historically both of these teams hit the over. Based on the numbers, both bets are great options this week. The numbers make sense for these bets. Take the value this week with both these picks. 

Pick: Cleveland Browns -2  (-110) & Total Over 47.5 (-110)

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