Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Oct 2, 2021 - 10:08 AM

Week 4 brings us a marquee NFC West matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. This game will be one the most anticipated of the week, so I’ll spare you the rest of this introduction.

Below we’ll take a closer look at the betting angle surrounding this game.

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Details

• Opening Line: O/U: 46.5 |SF -3.5
• Current Line: O/U: 52.5 | SF -3

Overview

Both these teams enter this divisional matchup coming off losses. Seattle fell to the Minnesota Vikings 30-17, while San Francisco fell to the Green Bay Packers 30-28 on a last-second field goal.

The Seahawks started the game hot, leading 17-7 in the second quarter. But by halftime, they were down 21-17, and subsequently were held scoreless in the entire second half.

The 49ers experienced the opposite. At one point finding themselves down 17-0. Before batting back to take a 28-27 lead with 37 seconds left to play – eventually succumbing to Aaron Rodgers.

Below we’ll compare how these two team’s matchups metrically:

Numbers Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

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Average Offensive Snaps

• SEA: 54.7
• SF: 65.7

% Run Plays:

• SEA: 34%
• SF: 43%

% Pass Plays:

• SEA: 66%
• SF: 57%

EPA Per Run:

• SEA: 0.01
• SF: -0.14

EPA Per Pass:

• SEA: 0.17
• SF: 0.31

These teams are relatively similar in running and passing plays. Both teams’ running game leaves much to be desired, but the 49ers hold a significant advantage in EPA per Pass.

However, I take this metric with a grain of salt. Not because of the small sample size, but because Russell Wilson is vastly more talented than Jimmy Garoppolo.

Speaking of these two quarterbacks, let’s analyze their advanced statistics through Week 3 per PFF: 

Overall Grade

• Wilson: 78.8
• Garoppolo: 62.3

Passer Rating When Clean:

• Wilson: 140.2
• Garoppolo: 108.8

Passer Rating Under Pressure:

• Wilson: 104.9
• Garoppolo: 75.9

Big-Time Throw %:

• Wilson: 4.72%
• Garoppolo: 0.00%

 Turnover-Worthy Play%

• Wilson: 0.00%
• Garoppolo: 4.59%

Wilson grades out far better in every category and has been dialed in with his 4.72 big-time throw% in the young season. Couple that with his 0.00% turnover-worthy play% to Jimmy G’s 4.59%, and it’s not even a conversation. 

Trends

• Seattle is 12-2 in their last 14 meetings against San Francisco
• Seattle is 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 meetings against San Francisco
• Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings

Bottom Line

Seattle enters this game fresh off two poor losses. Blowing large leads in both and seeing their offense come to a standstill in the second half. This team is too talented to drop three straight. Additionally, the ‘Hawks have a significant advantage at the quarterback position. I’ll be looking for Wilson to get his offense back on track while taking advantage of an injury-ravaged 49ers team.

Pick: Seattle +3

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