New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Oct 2, 2021 - 9:58 AM

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Details

  • Current Lines 
  • *Breakeven %
    • **ATS: 50.9% either way (as always for each team)
    • Moneyline: 25.4% New York Giants, 79% New Orleans Saints
    • Total: 50.4% (either way)
  • Last meeting: The away Saints beat the Giants 33-18 in 2018

*Reminder: “Breakeven %” equates to, informally, how confident/probable you would need to be to bet that side, and get a fair/even bet (i.e. it helps bettors understand the pricing/payout/odds all at the same time).
**That extra 1.1 percentage points is the price you pay for a fair ATS bet  

Overview

When the Saints have the ball
Team Total

DVOA

 Weighted

DVOA

 Variance
NO OFF 19 -3.80% 19 -3.80% 32 28.40%
NYG DEF 23 10.20% 23 10.20% 6 1.20%
When the Giants have the ball
Team Total

DVOA

 Weighted

DVOA

 Variance
NYG OFF 14 2.30% 14 2.30% 20 3.80%
NO DEF 3 -25.30% 3 -25.30% 24 4.90%

 
*Based on Football Outsiders DVOA Ratings (Ranking in left column)

The Giants are coming off a tough home loss in which according to ESPN’s Win Probability Calculator they literally were predicted to win throughout the first 57:41 minutes of the game, yet lost:

The Giants remained one of a handful of winless teams left in the NFL. The Saints on the other hand are coming off their second significant win of the season (first the Packers, now the Patriots), vs a well-coached/quality opponent. They continue on their road trying to prove they can contend without recently retired Drew Brees.  According to the Football Outsiders Almanac, (since 1993) there have been 10 teams that needed to replace a 10-year veteran/Hall of Fame QB. On average those teams won 4.3 fewer games the following year. Only the 2012 Colts (Andrew Luck’s rookie season) and 2000 Dolphins (Jay Fiedler) had a winning record the following season. Jameis Winston and the Saints will continue their quest to be the third.

When the Saints have the ball (NYG Defense)

*Props to PFF for the Graphic

Key NEW Injuries

NO OFF: Terron Armstead will be out this week, however (likely due to solid replacement James Hurst) doesn’t have too much of a drop in team production when he’s been off the field (this year or last)

NYG DEF: Blake Martinez is out for the season. According to SIS datahub ON/OFF Report, Blake Martinez has a net .21 EPA per play (lost) when OFF the field.  So there is cause for some concern for the Giants defense.

Through 3 games Jameis Winston has sent fans through a bit of a roller-coaster. However, when applying the “analytical lens” you see he’s mainly underwhelmed. The 35th (of 42) ranked QBs according to PFF, numbers were mainly inflated by the power of distortion. Instead, the Saints have mainly been driven by their run game. Or let me rephrase that, the CONSISTENCY of their run game. Take a look at their rushing ranks according to the SIS Datahub:

Metric Rank
Rushing EPA/Att. 22nd
Rushing Positive Play % 10th

 

You can read this table as such: The Saints rushing attack (relative to their peers’) has in aggregate not produced a high level of success. However, as “Positive Play %” records the distribution of those runs that led to positive EPA points (i.e. no magnitude, “they are getting on base a lot, but not many home runs/triples”), meaning they have been able to “move chains” and “stay on script”. 

On the other side of the ball, the Giants defense with their 3-man rushes and little blitzing looks similar to their 2020 version: not great, but not terrible with just enough bad QBs (Andy Dalton, Kyle Allen, Brandon Allen, and the Eagles in meltdown mode) sprinkled in to skew the perspective that they are an average defense. 

The one relative strength is their interior D-Line, which opponents last year refused to run into (41.9% of all rushes went inside, lowest in the league for a defense). This for the most part has remained steady in 2021 and should be interesting to see how much the Saints challenge the gut of the Giant’s front seven.

**Note that Injuries considered are ONLY for players that have played the majority of snaps for their side of the ball WITHIN the DVOA rating/PFF Grade we are using as our base (i.e. only players that helped/hurt performance that we are taking into account, that will NOT/confirmed will NOT play this week

When the Giants have the ball (NO Defense)

*Props to PFF for the Graphic

**Key NEW Injuries:

NYG OFF: NONE

NO DEF: NONE

The Giants offense will always be neutered with Jason Garrett at the helm. Between multiple reports of how he “threw games” calling crap plays the year before he got handed play-calling duties with the Cowboys, and his idiotic tactical decisions (like increasing early-down run rates from 20th to 7th in the NFL AFTER Saquon Barkley gets injured) he is flirting with “Adam Gase territory” of futility.  Coupled with poor coaching the Giants are led by deep or nothing QB Daniel Jones. Believe it or not, Jones had the second-highest completion rate of Passes over 25 yards last year (behind Deshaun Watson). YET, on passes thrown 5 yards or less, he had the 3rd lowest Yards/Attempt. Read: Beyond the occasional Jones bomb, the Giants couldn’t make anything happen in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field. 

The hope was that much of this would be improved with the return of “short area” specialist Saquan Barkley and the drafting of Kadarius Toney. So far the results in 2021 are encouraging for Jones and the Giants Offense (spray chart thanks to PFF):

On the other side of the ball though, the Saints defense has continued their stellar play of the past couple of years. They come in as the third highest-ranked defense by DVOA and have a clear advantage on this side of play. Additionally, Daniel Jones has a history of significant Man vs Zone splits during his young career. 

Man Successful Play Rate Zone Successful Play Rate
2021 45.5% 54.1%
2020 37.9% 48.8%
2019 45.5% 46.6%

 

The New Orleans Saints led the league in Man Coverage rate last year (47% rate), and currently running Cover 0/1 (Man) at the third highest rate in the NFL (30%) in 2021. This does not bode well for Jones. Jones, who by the way has been flirting with a 1-2 interception game for a few weeks now, yet has 0 on the season. According to PFF, he has thrown 3 turnover-worthy passes, with 0 interceptions. A quick look at his QB Archetype through 3 games, confirms this:

Metric Rank
Time to Throw Rank 24th longest TTT
ADOT Rank 12th farthest 
Aggressiveness Rank 3rd most aggressive
Expected Completion Rank 24th lowest
+/- Completion Rank 19th

 

Daniel Jones will throw 1-2 interceptions in this game. This is a great parlay to play if you can get a decent line.

Bottom Line 

These teams may be closer than the market believes given some issues that the Saints offense will have running vs the teeth of the Giants defense. However, given this will be the first time New Orleans is back in front of their home crowd this year, there will likely be a very strong home-field advantage component. If you can, try to buy this down to -6.5, but if you can’t you have to go with the Home Saints here.

Pick: Saints -8

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