Green Bay Packers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Oct 9, 2021 - 4:17 PM

The Green Bay Packers have been electric since their Week 1 against the New Orleans Saints. Since the Week 1 loss, they’re averaging 31 points per game. Aaron Rodgers has a 70% completion rating during his last three games and has an 8-0 TD to INT ratio. Devante Adams is averaging 105 yards receiving during that time as well. Since Week 1, this team has been firing on all cylinders.  The defense is starting to hit their stride as well. They are giving up 20 points per game. The Green Bay Packers have found themselves back at #4 in the Power Rankings this week. 

The Cincinnati Bengals are playing better than everyone expected this year. They are 3-1 and tied for first place in the AFC North, but they have been in close games all year though. Their average point differential is +4 points. That means all of their games have been close. They have found themselves at #13 in the Power Rankings. The biggest surprise has been the defense, and they are giving up 18 points per game. That is low enough to put them at the #8 defense in the league when it comes to points scored against them. 

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Details

• Opening Lines: Green Bay Packers  -4.5, Total 47
• Last Game: September 24, 2017, Green Bay Packers 27-24
• Current Winning Streak: Green Bay Packers (1)
• Green Bay Packers are 6-2 against the spread in its last eight games.

Overview

Green Bay is a balanced team this year. They have a good defense and a good offense. Their offense is balanced too, which helps in this matchup. Green Bay throws the ball 55% of the time and runs it 45% of the time. Cincinnati is the #8 ranked rushing defense in the NFL. They are giving up only 3.7 yards per rush. This game is an opportunity for Green Bay to cover the spread. That forces them to throw the ball with the reigning MVP. Who is throwing to Devante Adams, and he is averaging 105 yards per game. Green Bay will have opportunities to get big chunks of yards. This defensive matchup benefits Green Bay to cover in this game. 

Cincinnati has been good on offense this year. They have Joe Mixon averaging 4.3 yards per rushing attempt and two great wide receivers in Boyd and Chase. The bad thing for Cincinnati is that they are going up against one of the top defenses in the NFL. Green Bay ranks #8 in passing defense in the NFL and #10 in rushing defense. Green Bay is limiting opposing offenses to 20 points per game. Cincinnati is averaging 23 points per game, which means 20 points will be accurate this game. Green Bay is scoring 31 points per game. Green Bay has the advantage in this game. 

Bottom Line

Green Bay is getting value with this line. The line started at -4.5 and has moved down to 3 points. Jaire being out hurts the Packers and is why this line is moving, but they get Kevin King back this week, and first-round pick Eric Stokes has looked fantastic this year. Away favorites against the spread have the highest betting winning percentage in the NFL right, now with a 61% win rate. This game leans in favor of the Packers covering the spread. They are an away favorite, have been great against the spread this year, and they have the reigning MVP throwing the ball to one of the top receivers in the NFL. I am trusting the numbers with the Packers to cover the spread.  

Pick: Green Bay Packers -3  (-105)

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