Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Oct 23, 2021 - 12:30 AM

It’s a new era in Chicago as rookie QB Justin Fields is now firmly the man at the helm this season and beyond for better or worse. His toughest test so far is this week, as he and the Bears head south to take on perennial All-Pro Tom Brady and the reigning Super Bowl Champ Buccaneers.

Let’s take a closer look at one of the larger spreads on Sunday’s board and see where the value remains.

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Details

• Opening Line: Buccaneers -13, O/U 49
• Current Line: Buccaneers -13, O/U 47
• Last meeting: October 8, 2020, Buccaneers 19, Bears 20

Overview

After starting the season with Andy Dalton, it became quickly evident the Red Rocket, even when healthy, wasn’t going to work for the Bears faithful with Fields waiting in the Wings. Coming into his first start, the team had a record of 2-2 as Fields secured win #1 right out of the gates on the road in Las Vegas 20-9.

In his last start, the Bears had the unpleasant task of taking on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who beat but didn’t entirely “own” them last week in Chicago. In the loss, Fields threw for just 20 yards less than Rodgers, as the Bears were able to establish a running attack behind Khalil Herbert and another 43 yards from Fields.

For the Bucs, the season began once they were able to get beyond Brady’s reunion in Foxboro, winning that game narrowly before winning their last two since by a combined 34 points. In last week’s win on the road in Philadelphia, Brady threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns, as they added another 100 on the ground.

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Trends

• Under 5-0 in Bears L5 games
• Bucs 6-1 ATS in L7 at home
• Over 4-0 in Bucs L4 as home favorite

Bottom Line

While it hasn’t been all on Fields (only 1/3), the Bears rank dead last in passing yards per game, coming into this one with a staggering 117.2 per contest to this point. They’ve also struggled to put points on the board, averaging just 16.3 per game.

In this one, I like for the Buccaneers defense to take a step forward against the rookie and for the offense to be content putting up 30+ and packing it up. This points to an under, and while it’s dipped from the opener, I still like it at anything 46 and above.

Pick: Under 47

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