NFL Best Bet for Chargers at Raiders: Sunday Night Football (Week 18)

Jan 9, 2022 - 8:02 PM

If you’re like me, you fall victim to the Sunday scaries every week. The crushing reality of work yet-to-be-done starts to sink in sometime in the afternoon, and it’ll ruin the rest of the day if you let it. Fortunately, it doesn’t have to — just change the channel to ESPN! It’s much easier to forget about tomorrow when Sunday Night Football is occupying your attention.

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Josh Jacobs o60.5 Rushing Yards | -125 at PointsBet

Targeting opposing running backs against the Chargers has been a viable strategy this season, although Los Angeles has stepped up in surprising spots. The Chargers surrender the third-most rushing yards per game to opposing backfields (109.5). They let Rex Burkhead gash them for 149 rushing yards in Week 16, and the not-so-dynamic duo of Saquon Barkley and Devontae Booker compiled 120 rushing yards against them in Week 14. Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams even combined for 73 rushing yards against them in Denver’s loss last week.

Josh Jacobs hasn’t been the most efficient rusher his season, but he does have a path to 61 yards tonight. The Chargers’ defensive line ranks fifth-worse in adjusted line yards (4.66). Although the Raiders’ offensive line isn’t great, they rank 17th in adjusted line yards (4.27), which should be enough to create some holes for their star rusher. Jacobs himself doesn’t fare that well in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR), but his number (33) slots him in right around players who have burned the Chargers recently, like Booker (38) and Burkhead (-6).

I don’t love the juice here, especially because Jacobs has gone over this number just four times this year. However, half of his hits have come in Las Vegas’ last two games, and I expect the Raiders to trust their leading rusher against Los Angeles’ struggling run defense. That said, see if you can get a better deal on this prop as a live bet.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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