NFL Futures: Best NFL MVP Longshot Bets (2022)
Jul 7, 2022 - 5:45 PM
The NFL MVP Award offers plenty of longshot opportunities. Just look back to 2019, when Lamar Jackson took home the honors after opening at 100/1. In 2020, Aaron Rodgers was listed at 25/1 in the preseason before posting his MVP-winning season. With a long NFL season filled with countless variables, NFL MVP longshot bets can be some of the more profitable wagers because new players emerge as MVP candidates every year.
And recently, the NFL MVP has been a quarterback award. A passer has won the award in 14 of the last 15 seasons, with Adrian Peterson’s incredible 2012 season being the lone exception. Unfortunately, the oddsmakers know this too and bake history into their odds. However, plenty of players still offer a lot of value and are worth a flyer to win MVP.
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2022 NFL MVP Odds
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The biggest winner in the aftermath of the Davante Adams trade is Derek Carr. He now has the luxury of throwing to a surplus of offensive weapons including arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL in his old college teammate.
Let’s not forget that when Carr had everybody available last season, the Raiders quarterback ranked second in the NFL in passing yards and 15th in fantasy points per game. However, his ceiling was limited due to his lack of mobility and weaponry; Carr did not finish better than a top-8 quarterback at any point in 2021.
But Adams figures to provide Carr with a red-zone weapon like no other that will unlock his fantasy ceiling. He’s the exact positive touchdown regression that should launch Carr’s fantasy numbers. Carr’s 3.7 TD rate in 2021 was below his career average (4.3). And his 23 total passing touchdowns were seven below expectation.
Fully anticipate Carr throwing for 30-plus laser scores bare minimum with Adams at his disposal. Every quarterback last season that threw for at least 30 touchdowns finished inside the top-10 in 2021.
– Andrew Erickson
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In his first full season, Jalen Hurts was the QB6 in fantasy points per game as the Eagles’ starting quarterback. An ankle sprain dropped his rushing numbers from 57.9 to 29.7 yards per game over his final three contests. Without that ding, his full-season numbers could have been even better. With another season in this offensive system incoming and A.J. Brown now on the roster, Hurts has top-three fantasy quarterback upside in 2022.
– Derek Brown
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is easily the biggest winner as A.J. Brown’s absurd efficiency and YAC-ability in Tennessee was a primary driving force behind Ryan Tannehill’s fantasy success as a Titan. Hurts is an easy top-eight fantasy quarterback next season with top-five status well within reach. The Eagles ranked second in screen rate a season ago, so anticipate plenty of plays where Hurts just dumps the ball off to AJB for massive chunk gains. Brown finished fourth in yards per route run last season (2.72) despite battling injuries throughout the season.
– Andrew Erickson
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Trey Lance is falling in best ball ADP because of reports surfacing that he is underwhelming at OTAs and because Jimmy Garoppolo remains on the roster. But after the 49ers beat reporters butchered the Trey Sermon situation last season and the 49ers’ massive investment in Lance last year, I view this situation as an easy buy-low scenario.
Garoppolo’s shoulder surgery is the reason he hasn’t been traded. Once he is deemed healthy, I’d presume he gets moved to a QB-needy team or to a roster that sustains an injury at the position.
Lance only started two games but showed off the rushing that excited fantasy managers during draft season. The 49ers’ first-year signal-caller averaged 22.4 expected fantasy points and 60 rushing yards per game.
– Andrew Erickson
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The Minnesota Vikings passer finished as the QB11 in total fantasy points and QB12 in points per game in 2021. And his new head coach comes from an offense that threw more aggressively on early downs under neutral game scripts; fifth-highest rate over the past two seasons. The Vikings ranked 27th in the category. Don’t be surprised to see Captain Kirk flirt with top-10 numbers in 2022. He finished last year as PFF’s fourth-highest graded quarterback.
– Andrew Erickson
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After spending his entire 14-year NFL career with the Atlanta Falcons, Matt Ryan will be the starting quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts in his 15th season. Atlanta traded Matt Ryan to the Colts for a 2022 third-round pick.
It’s a major upgrade for Ryan’s fantasy appeal that he was able to get out of Atlanta – a franchise that looks to be in a massive rebuild. Last season, Ryan lacked a strong supporting cast which contributed to his lackluster numbers.
Calvin Ridley played five games, and the Falcons owned the league’s second-worst blocking offensive line per PFF. Ryan faced pressure at the sixth-highest rate (40%). That won’t be the case in Indianapolis with a better offensive line in place, a stable running game, and playmakers like Michael Pittman Jr. and Jonathan Taylor to boot.
Ryan was also vastly underrated as a passer despite the ongoing turmoil ranking above average in many of PFF’s sticky efficiency metrics in 2021: 12th in PFF passing grade from a clean pocket, second throwing at the intermediate level, and ninth throwing on early downs.
Entering a Frank Reich system that prides itself on churning out play-action (5th) and screen passes (10th) will make Ryan’s life a helluva lot easier than it was in Atlanta.
– Andrew Erickson
NON-QB 2022 NFL MVP Longshots
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Those that faded Derrick Henry as a first-round pick in 2021 received suboptimal results. The Tennessee Titans running back led the position in fantasy PPR points per game (23.4) through eight weeks and bested his 2020 2,000-yard campaign by more than 2.5 PPR points per game.
The unicorn running back averaged 29.6 touches per game – seven more than the next closest running back before his injury. And although he didn’t play again until the postseason, Henry still finished 15th in the NFL in total touches and as the RB20 overall in just eight games played.
No running back better depicts the “volume is king” mantra better than the King himself and his guaranteed volume make him near bulletproof.
Coming off an injury-plagued season does raise some concerns about whether Henry’s body is going to break down because of his insane workload. And the lack of pass-game usage is a detriment to his value in PPR formats. But it’s impossible to ignore his workload opportunity in 2022 within a Titans anemic passing offense. They don’t have any reason to not feature him and there are no indications that they are going to stop with him due $15M this season.
Seems more likely than not they ride Henry did his contract expires before the 2024 season when he hits age 30.
– Andrew Erickson
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What else is there to say about Cooper Kupp’s historic 2021 campaign? The guy was essentially lapping the other wide receivers, finishing No. 1 overall in points per game, receiving yards (1,947) and target share (31%) with over 200 targets total in 21 games played.
New quarterback Matthew Stafford elevated Kupp back inside the top-5 fantasy WRs – as he previously was in 2019. Stafford’s arrival in L.A. was the code to cracking Kupp’s untapped potential especially with touchdowns.
After catching just three the year prior, Kupp led the league with 16 TD scores – a feat that has happened only six times since 2007.
However, regression will also certainly hit Kupp’s production in 2022, just because it’s near impossible for him to repeat his once-in-a-lifetime production. Of the five WRs that caught at least 16 touchdowns, they averaged just 6.6 TDs the following season. Only two (Davante Adams, Randy Moss) were able to haul in double-digit scores.
– Andrew Erickson
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After playing just a 70% snap share once in 2020, Jonathan Taylor surpassed that number in nine contests in 2021, including eight weeks during the team’s last eight games. Taylor also led the NFL in red-zone touches (92), which was not that surprising considering he ranked fifth in that category as a rookie.
That elite goal-line usage helped separate Taylor from the pack as the bonafide No. 1 running back in fantasy football. No player came close to sniffing his amount of volume near paydirt. Taylor’s 42 carries inside the 10-yard line were 12 more than the next-closest back (Damien Harris, 30).
Pairing Taylor’s elite red-zone usage with his ascending role as a receiver – 11th in routes run and sixth in route participation in 2021 – makes him worthy of the 1.01 pick across all fantasy formats. No quarterback targeted running backs more than new Colts quarterback Matt Ryan did in 2021 – 8.6 targets per game.
– Andrew Erickson
What are Player Futures?
Player futures refer to any player-based wager for a future event or a result. These bets often do not pay out until weeks or even months from when they are originally placed. Most player futures are built around a specific statistic, where bettors determine whether that player will come in above or below the oddsmakers’ total. They often open with odds at -110 but are adjusted based on where the majority of bets are placed.
Matthew Freedman’s Best Bets After the 2022 NFL Draft >>
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The post NFL Futures: Best NFL MVP Longshot Bets (2022) appeared first on BettingPros.
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