Best Odds & Picks for NFL Division Winners (2022)

Aug 15, 2022 - 10:19 AM

The NFL season is just weeks away from starting. We’ve survived the long wait to the preseason, and only a few more sleeps separate us from seven hours of commercial-free football.

But as the season approaches, the window for profitable futures bets starts to close. Storylines that sharps picked up on in the offseason will soon become mainstream talking points. Trends that sharps used to identify strong teams will start leading those teams to good records—and unprofitable odds on the betting markets.

Here are our best bets for NFL division winners this upcoming season.

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Best Bets for NFL Division Winners

AFC East

Buffalo Bills: -210 at PointsBet
I generally don’t advise playing division winner lines this far out of the plus money. However, I’ll make an exception for the team I think could be the NFL’s best this season. The Bills were just a few seconds away from the AFC Championship Game last year. With the addition of Von Miller and the return of Tre’Davious White, Buffalo should terrify opponents in 2022.

The Bills won this division in 2020 and 2021. Josh Allen seems to have picked up right where Tom Brady left off in 2019 as the owner of the AFC East. His Bills ranked second in team defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) last year, improving on a fourth-place performance the year before. The offense ranked 10th and the defense ranked first.

I’m not convinced by Buffalo’s divisional opposition. The Dolphins got a lot better on offense, but that unit may need time to gel. Further, it remains to be seen if Tua Tagovailoa is the answer at quarterback. The Patriots didn’t make any significant moves in the offseason and will remain the same efficient, slow-paced offense. That kind of play only works against Buffalo in bad weather. And the Jets, well, are the Jets. They didn’t add enough talent to their roster to be much more than a punching bag.

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals: +200 at PointsBet
Cincinnati shocked the world and made the Super Bowl in Joe Burrow’s second season. His smart play—and the team’s talented receiving corps—routinely produced big plays. Specifically, the Bengals gained 726 yards on 74 explosive passes. They did so despite their offensive line allowing the second-highest adjusted sack rate (9.1%).

Because the Bengals’ line played so poorly last year, the team brought in three new starters: center Ted Karras, right guard Alex Cappa, and right tackle La’El Collins. They also signed tight end Hayden Hurst, who can contribute to pass protection.

The Bengals have a more difficult schedule this season by virtue of their first-place finish in the AFC North. However, I expect them to look considerably better with their rebuilt offensive line. You’ll find Cincinnati as short as +180 in some places, so we’re getting a solid deal at PointsBet.

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars: +800 at DraftKings
The AFC South markets are frustrating. Yes, the Colts will probably win this division. Matt Ryan will force defenses to respect Indianapolis’ passing attack, which will open up opportunities for Jonathan Taylor to gash them on the ground.

But if the injury bug rears its head in Indianapolis, the Colts won’t have the depth to compete. The Colts are already without Shaquille (formerly Darius) Leonard, and for all their hope and optimism that he’ll be back for Week 1, I’m not convinced. The two players listed behind Leonard at middle linebacker are Forrest Rhyne and James Skalski, two undrafted rookies. The Colts don’t have someone at another linebacker position to play Mike, either. Their backup Sam, JoJo Domann, is another undrafted rookie. Their backup Will, E.J. Speed, is a former fifth-round pick who earned a PFF grade of 51.5 last year. Woof.

Depth issues extend to the receiving corps. Keke Coutee, Ashton Dulin, and Dezmon Patmon are the next men up behind Pittman, Pierce, and Campbell, who themselves are an untested unit. The six receivers have logged a combined 266 receptions, almost half of which belong to Pittman.

So if the Colts falter, who will win the division? Not the Titans. They’ll struggle without A.J. Brown, and the heavy workload is starting to get to Derrick Henry. The Jaguars are in a much better spot. They have a young, revitalized offense and a Super Bowl-winning head coach. The odds of them winning the AFC South are higher than the 11.1% chance that DraftKings is giving them. You’ll find this line as short as +700 elsewhere.

AFC West

Los Angeles Chargers: +240 at BetMGM
No division improved more in the offseason than the AFC West. The Chargers added a bevy of defensive talent, the Raiders got Davante Adams, and the Broncos traded for Russell Wilson. The Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill and Tyrann Mathieu, yet they remain the favorites to win the division. That doesn’t make sense to me.

Los Angeles’ defense held the team back last season. That won’t be the case this year—the team added Khalil Mack, J.C. Jackson, Sebastian Joseph-Day, and Austin Johnson in the offseason. Mack and Joey Bosa will terrorize opposing quarterbacks. Joseph-Day and Johnson will prevent opposing offenses from exploiting the Chargers on the ground. Jackson will shore up a secondary that already had plenty of firepower at safety but needed help on the perimeter.

I don’t feel comfortable betting on anyone else to win this division. No matter how good Skyy Moore, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling prove to be, Kansas City’s passing game will struggle without Hill. None of their new receivers own his combination of raw speed, burst, and awareness. The Broncos will start a quarterback who hasn’t looked like his once-great self in years. We’ll need to see if he can return to form. Finally, the Raiders have some incredible playmakers, but they lack the depth necessary to win this division.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles: +175 at PointsBet
The Eagles want to see what they’ve got in Jalen Hurts. They tipped their hand by adding A.J. Brown in the offseason. All accounts indicate that Hurts and Brown have developed solid chemistry thus far, and Philadelphia’s new-look offense should impress in 2022. The only question is whether they’ll be better than Dallas.

On paper, the Cowboys looked exceptionally efficient last season. They ranked first in team DVOA and recorded a dominant 12-5 record—yet the San Francisco 49ers easily eliminated them in the Wild Card round. Dallas benefited from luck they may not have this season. For example, Trevon Diggs probably won’t rack up 11 interceptions again. Further, Diggs’ 59.6 PFF grade suggests the Cowboys were lucky he didn’t get burned more often.

Because they won the division last year, Dallas will have to play each of the NFC’s division winners: Los Angeles, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay. In contrast, Philadelphia will get the runners-up: Arizona, Minnesota, and New Orleans. Sharp Football Analysis rated Philadelphia’s strength of schedule as the second-lightest in 2022. The Eagles have an easy path to the division title, which is why other books have this line as low as +145.

NFC North

Minnesota Vikings: +280 at BetMGM
The Packers have given Aaron Rodgers one of the NFL’s worst receiving corps. It’s not quite as bad as what the Bears have assembled, but it’s still awful. Green Bay will also likely start the season without starting tackles David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins. Poor roster construction will hold Rodgers back, and I expect the Vikings to pounce.

Minnesota has a sound roster. Kirk Cousins isn’t the greatest quarterback, but he has Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen to target. He’ll also play in a new-look offense assembled by one of Sean McVay’s proteges, Kevin O’Connell. Minnesota’s defense boasts several talented linebackers, including ex-Packer Za’Darius Smith. Their secondary has been an issue for years, but that won’t be as big of a problem against the NFC North’s awful receiving corps.

You’ll find Green Bay between -190 and -155 to win this division. They’ve won it the last three seasons, but I don’t see them extending the streak because of how much talent they’ve hemorrhaged over time. The Vikings have odds as short as +240 in some places, so getting the +280 at BetMGM is a solid deal.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints: +350 at BetMGM
This bet is a little odd, but it could pay off quickly. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are clear-cut favorites to win the NFC South this year with odds between -250 and -275. But 45-year-old quarterback Tom Brady, who already retired once this offseason, is currently away from the team. It’s a strange and unprecedented situation.

There is a non-zero chance that Brady doesn’t play a snap for Tampa Bay this season. And if he does, there is a decent chance that he gets hurt. Starting guard Ali Marpet retired this offseason, and starting center Ryan Jensen could be out for months with a knee injury. Tampa Bay’s once solid offensive line will likely take a step back this year. Should anything happen to Brady, his backups, Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Trask, don’t inspire confidence.

Enter the New Orleans Saints. Fresh off a runner-up finish in the NFC South last season, they would be the favorites in a division without Tom Brady. The Saints ranked 14th in team DVOA last year. They ranked third defensively but 23rd offensively. The team’s offseason moves—drafting Chris Olave and signing Jarvis Landry—virtually guarantee that the offense will be better. Getting Michael Thomas back will help, too. This line will move in your favor if the headlines get worse for Tampa Bay, and you might be able to cash out before the Saints even take the field.

NFC West

Los Angeles Rams: +125 at FanDuel
I only recommend buying one favorite in the NFC. The Los Angeles Rams constructed their roster with every intention of winning last year’s Super Bowl, but the consequences of their win-now approach likely won’t hurt them much in 2022. Losing Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. led them to add Bobby Wagner and Allen Robinson. They’ll join Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, Jalen Ramsey, and Aaron Donald on one of the NFL’s most star-studded rosters.

As a result, it’s genuinely surprising that the books are listing Los Angeles in the plus money. The Rams sit at +125 across the market, ahead of the San Francisco 49ers at +200 and the Arizona Cardinals at +300. Breakout seasons from Trey Lance or Kyler Murray could threaten the Rams, but it’s hard to bet against the defending Super Bowl champions.

Teams that win the Super Bowl tend to win their division the next year if they don’t make a change at quarterback. Of the last nine Super Bowl winners, only the Denver Broncos (2016) and Philadelphia Eagles (2018) failed to win their division the next year. The Broncos lost Peyton Manning to retirement, and the Eagles let Nick Foles return to the bench once Carson Wentz got healthy. Unless Stafford goes down with an injury, the Rams should repeat as NFC West winners.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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