Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets Picks & Predictions (Dolphins vs. Bengals)

Sep 28, 2022 - 2:16 PM

Last week, the NFL’s primetime slate tested just how much we love football. Bad weather, sloppy QB play, and bloopers made it a tricky slate to bet. This week, however, we will be rewarded for our patience.

The NFL’s Week 4 primetime games kick off with a showdown between the Miami Dolphins and the Cincinnati Bengals. Miami is one of the season’s surprise teams so far – after an impressive win over Buffalo in Week 3, they sit alone atop the AFC East at 3-0. Cincinnati started the season with a couple of disappointing losses but easily handled the Jets to get to 1-2.

With a matchup of two exciting young QBs, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa, this game should see some points put up. Let’s take a look at the best TD Props offered for Thursday’s game.

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Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets Picks & Predictions (Dolphins vs. Bengals)

Jaylen Waddle First TD (+1000 DK)

Before the season, experts were wondering which one of Jaylen Waddle or Tyreek Hill would emerge as the new alpha receiver in Miami. The answer has turned out to be both.

While Hill is the hot new name in Miami, Waddle has built on an excellent 2021 rookie season. In three games, he’s posted 19 catches on 30 targets for 342 yards and 3 TDs. The target, yard, and TD totals are good for 1st on the Dolphins. While Waddle has pop as a deep threat, two of his three TDs have come in the red zone. He’s also the Dolphins’ leader in red zone targets (4). 

The Dolphins have thrown just three deep passes in the first quarter, compared to 12 short passes. Waddle does his best work on short passes – of his 30 targets this season, 25 have come on passes with fewer than 15 air yards. I expect the Dolphins to come out playing a methodical offense with conservative pass plays, and I expect Waddle to be the beneficiary of this game plan.

Waddle’s +1000 odds give him the second shortest odds of any Dolphins player to score the game’s first TD behind Tyreek Hill. Given Waddle’s usage and the Dolphins’ first-quarter game plan, I’d contend he should have shorter odds than Hill. 

Ja’Marr Chase First TD (+650 DK)

Early in 2022, Ja’Marr Chase has picked up where he left off as Joe Burrow’s favorite target. Chase owns a 27% target share in a Bengals offense that has been in the top five in the NFL regarding pass attempts. He should have a nice matchup against a Miami team that has allowed the second most pass yards in the NFL this season, especially with star CB Xavien Howard limited with an injury.

The Bengals have played aggressively in the first quarter this season, attempting 32 pass plays compared to only 15 runs. Ja’Marr Chase leads the Bengals in first-quarter targets, with a blend of short and deep targets showing that Burrow looks to get him involved early all over the field.

While Chase is a threat no matter where the Bengals have the ball, he’s been a serious red zone threat this year. Chase owns a massive 33% target share of the Bengals’ 24 red zone attempts. In fact, Chase has only two fewer targets + rushes in the red zone than Bengals star RB Joe Mixon.

I expect the Bengals to come out aggressive early and make a statement at home against a team that some would argue is better on paper. With an injured Xavien Howard and questionable pass defense, Chase should be able to convert a high percentage of the targets he sees on Thursday night. At +650, I love this price for him to get in the end zone.

Raheem Mostert Anytime TD (+285 DK)

Coming into the season, new Miami Dolphins RB Chase Edmonds was a trendy fantasy football sleeper pick. Three games into the season, however, it’s clear that Edmonds will split backfield duties 50/50 with Raheem Mostert. Mostert has 28 touches to Edmonds’ 29, 78 rushing yards to Edmonds’ 79, and 44 receiving yards to Edmonds’ 54. Mostert also has three red zone carries to Edmonds’ two (although both of Edmonds’ carries have resulted in TDs).

Given the roughly equal opportunity for these backs, it’s surprising to see Mostert (+285) carrying significantly longer odds than Edmonds (+175) to score a TD on Thursday night.

The Bengals’ defense has played pretty well all season, but this has come against two backup QBs (Cooper Rush and Joe Flacco) and another QB who has played like one (Mitchell Trubisky). All three of the TDs the Bengals have allowed this season have come in the red zone, and two of those three have been scored by RBs. Mostert should have opportunities within scoring range and will go against a defense that has struggled to stop RBs from a short distance this year.

If you can bet on an RB who leads his team in red zone touches and should get plenty of work at this price, you’re getting good value. Ride with Mostert to score on Thursday.

Hayden Hurst Anytime TD (+320 FD)

Miami’s pass defense has struggled this season against tight ends. In three games, the Dolphins have allowed TEs to put up 26 catches on 32 targets for 269 yards and a TD. Hayden Hurst is a TE that could give Miami more trouble on Thursday.

While Ja’Marr Chase has dominated target share for the Bengals so far, Hurst has quietly emerged as a reliable option for Joe Burrow in the passing game. Hurst has 17 targets on the season – after Ja’Marr Chase, the leader on the offense is Joe Mixon with 20. Hurst’s 17 targets put him two behind Tee Higgins and equal with Tyler Boyd.

Over the last two seasons in Atlanta, Hurst has put up one TD for every 13 targets he has seen. It’s a surprise that he hasn’t already gotten in the end zone this year, especially with two targets inside the opponent’s 10-yard line and one within the 5. Hurst will get in the end zone soon, and when he does, his Any Time TD odds will fall. Let’s take advantage of this anomaly while we can and hope that Hurst sees regression on Thursday night.

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