NFL Week 4 Leans for Every Game & Best Bets (2022)

Sep 29, 2022 - 7:25 PM

This season at BettingPros, we’re asking some of our experts to give leans and top picks for every game on the NFL slate. Here are all of their leans, picks, best bets and predictions for Week 4.

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Week 4 Spread Leans for Each Game

Home Team	Away Team	Home Spread	Fitzmaurice	Freedman	Wolbransky	Santora	MacMillan	LaMarca	Greer
CIN	MIA	-3.5	MIA	MIA	MIA	MIA	CIN	MIA	MIA
NO	MIN	2.5	NO	NO	MIN	NO	NO	NO	MIN
ATL	CLE	1.5	ATL	ATL	CLE	CLE	CLE	CLE	ATL
DAL	WAS	-3	DAL	WAS	WAS	DAL	WAS	DAL	WAS
BAL	BUF	3.5	BAL	BAL	BAL	BAL	BAL	BUF	BAL
HOU	LAC	5	LAC	LAC	LAC	LAC	LAC	LAC	HOU
NYG	CHI	-3	NYG	CHI	CHI	NYG	CHI	NYG	CHI
DET	SEA	-6	SEA	SEA	DET	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA
PHI	JAX	-6.5	JAX	PHI	JAX	PHI	JAX	PHI	JAX
IND	TEN	-3	IND	IND	IND	TEN	TEN	TEN	TEN
PIT	NYJ	-3.5	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT
CAR	ARI	-1.5	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI
LV	DEN	-2	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	LV	DEN	DEN
GB	NE	-10.5	GB	NE	GB	NE	NE	NE	NE
TB	KC	2.5	KC	TB	KC	TB	KC	KC	TB
SF	LAR	-2.5	SF	LAR	LAR	LAR	LAR	LAR	SF

 

Dolphins (+3.5) at Bengals

Miami Dolphins Kool-Aid and found it to be delicious. After their epic come-frrom-behind road win over the Ravens in Week 2, the Dolphins scored an impressive home victory over the mighty Bills. New HC Mike McDaniel has the Dolphins rolling, and they should be able to at least hang close with the Bengals, who have striggled to find their footing after making it all the way to the Super Bowl last season. The Dolphins rank third in yards per play at 6.4. The Bengals are dead last in the league in yards per play at 4.5. Ride the Miami momentum."}" data-sheets-userformat="{"2":769,"3":{"1":0},"11":4,"12":0}">I have tasted the Miami Dolphins Kool-Aid and found it to be delicious. After their epic come-from-behind road win over the Ravens in Week 2, the Dolphins scored an impressive home victory over the mighty Bills. New HC Mike McDaniel has the Dolphins rolling, and they should be able to at least hang close with the Bengals, who have struggled to find their footing after making it all the way to the Super Bowl last season. The Dolphins rank third in yards per play at 6.4. The Bengals are dead last in the league in yards per play at 4.5. Ride the Miami momentum.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Cardinals (+1.5) at Panthers

If you give me the opportunity to bet on Cardinals HC Kliff Kingsbury as a road dog (14-3-2 ATS) and against Panthers HC Matt Rhule as a home favorite (1-7 ATS), I’m going to do it. Panthers QB Baker Mayfield ranks No. 32 in the league in composite expected points added and completion percentage over expectation (-0.057, per RBs Don’t Matter). He really might be the worst starting quarterback in Week 4. Say what you want about Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, but he’s no worse than average — and he’s probably a top-10 player at the position. The homefield advantage the Panthers theoretically have in this game isn’t enough to outweigh the massive difference between Murray and Mayfield.
– Matthew Freedman

Ravens (+3) vs. Bills

The Ravens have been a preferred target for the sharps this week, and I’m in full agreement. The Bills are undoubtedly the best team in football at full strength, but they’re far from full strength at the moment. Their entire starting secondary has either been ruled out or is questionable, and two defensive linemen are also questionable. That’s simply not a good formula for stopping Lamar Jackson, who has looked unstoppable to start the year. He’s leading the league in touchdown passes and adjusted net yards per attempt as a passer, and he also leads the league in yards per carry. The Ravens took their foot off the gas in Week 2 vs. the Dolphins, but don’t expect them to make the same mistake vs. the Bills. The Ravens have also been outstanding when getting points, going 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games as underdogs.
– Matt LaMarca

Lions (-4) vs. Seahawks

Detroit has the third-highest implied team total in week 4. Their offense has been lights out this season, scoring the second most points per game and keeping pace with some of the best offensive talent in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are averaging the 5th worst points per game and lost by an average point margin of 8 points. Seattle’s defense is nothing notable, allowing the 12th most points, while Detroit’s defense has allowed the most points to opposing teams. Still, Geno Smith and the ugly Seattle offense don’t stand much of a chance vs. Detroit’s high-caliber offense and won’t be able to keep up.
– Ben Wolbransky

Giants (-3) vs. Bears

The battle of two 2-1 teams is not as exciting as their records indicate. The Giants arrive fresh off their loss to a backup QB, after narrow victories over the Titans and Panthers. The Bears have somehow eeked out two wins with Justin Fields completing 23 passes through three games. Both teams have run the ball effectively on the offensive side, ranking in the top four in terms of total rushing yards. The difference in this game will be the Bears inability to pass the ball and their poor run defense, 31st in rushing yards allowed, against Saquon Barkley.
– Dylan Santora

Raiders (-2) vs. Broncos

Though the Raiders enter Week 3 as the only 0-3 team in the NFL, they are not as bad as their record indicates. They have been defined by good and bad halves of football through the first 3 weeks, being outscored by their opponents 64-16 in their bad halves, but outscoring opponents 48-7 in their good halves. Meanwhile, the Nathaniel Hackett-Russell Wilson experiment has been a complete disaster in Denver, as the Broncos have failed to eclipse 16 points in any of their matchups. I expect for the Raiders to put a full game together and cover this short spread against a hapless Denver offense in front of a raucous home crowd in Las Vegas.
– Austin MacMillan

Week 4 Total Leans for Each Game

Home Team	Away Team	Over/Under	Fitzmaurice	Freedman	Wolbransky	Santora	MacMillan
CIN	MIA	47	Over	Under	Under	Over	Over
NO	MIN	44	Under	Under	Under	Over	Under
ATL	CLE	49.5	Under	Under	Under	Over	Under
DAL	WAS	42.5	Under	Over	Under	Under	Under
BAL	BUF	52	Over	Under	Over	Over	Over
HOU	LAC	44.5	Under	Under	Over	Over	Over
NYG	CHI	39.5	Over	Under	Under	Under	Under
DET	SEA	50	Under	Under	Under	Under	Under
PHI	JAX	48.5	Under	Under	Over	Over	Over
IND	TEN	42.5	Over	Over	Under	Under	Under
PIT	NYJ	41.5	Under	Under	Under	Over	Under
CAR	ARI	44	Over	Under	Under	Under	Under
LV	DEN	44.5	Over	Over	Over	Under	Under
GB	NE	40	Under	Over	Over	Over	Over
TB	KC	45	Over	Under	Over	Over	Under
SF	LAR	42.5	Over	Over	Over	Over	Over

 

Browns vs. Falcons UNDER 49.5

We’re getting a QB matchup between Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota, and the total is nearly 50? Yes, all three of Atlanta’s games this season have hit the 50-point mark, and 2 of 3 Cleveland games have produced 50 or more points. Neither of these defenses is a world-beater — and the Browns’ defense will be less imposing if edge rusher Myles Garrett is out following an early-week car crash — but I don’t think these offenses have enough juice to get this game to the 50-point mark.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Vikings vs. Saints UNDER 43.5

There are so many things working against the offenses in this spot. For starters, this game will be played across the pond, resulting in a 9 a.m. ET start time. The under has gone just 8-8 in 16 previous 9 a.m. ET contests, but totals in this range have been a sweet spot for the under. There have been five games with a total between 42 and 45, and the under is 4-1 in those contests. While that’s not a big enough sample size to make any conclusions, there are plenty of other reasons to consider the under in this spot. The Saints are incredibly banged up in their backfield, with Jameis Winston and Alvin Kamara both dealing with injuries. They’ve scored just 24 total points over the past two weeks, and Winston, in particular, has not looked impressive. The Vikings are also dealing with an injury to Dalvin Cook, and while that’s not nearly as important, their offense hasn’t exactly been firing on all cylinders to start the year. I expect them to struggle against a solid Saints defense.
– Matt LaMarca

Jaguars vs. Eagles OVER 46

Perhaps it’s the Jaguars’ ugly past decade that has the public fading them, but they’re quietly an elite offense. The Jaguars (7th) and the Eagles (5th) both rank Top 10 in offensive points per game. Similarly, both teams are outscoring opponents at an elite rate; the Eagles rank third in points margin, while the Jaguars rank second. While both teams also have solid defenses, 46 points is too low for two of the best-scoring teams in the NFL.
– Ben Wolbransky

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers OVER 45

This game is a rematch of Super Bowl LV, which saw the Bucs defeat the Chiefs 31-9. The Bucs’ defense arrives in similar form from their postseason run, having only given up 3, 10, and 14 points in the first three games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ offense has not been impressive since their opening week 44-point outburst versus the Cardinals. That said, a total of only 45 for offenses led by Brady and Mahomes caught my eye at first glance. I think three weeks for Mahomes to grow accustomed to his Tyreek Hill-less weapons, and the return of Mike Evans on the Bucs side, give the offenses enough juice to hit the over.
– Dylan Santora

Bears vs. Giants UNDER 39.5

This matchup represents the lowest point total on the board in Week 4, and for good reason. The Giants and the Bears are undoubtedly the worst passing offenses in the NFL, ranking 31st and 32nd in the league in net yards per pass attempt, respectively. In fact, the Bears’ passing attack is so bad that Geno Smith completed 9 more passes in Week 3 than Justin Fields has completed this entire season… yikes. On the flip side, both teams rank within the top 7 in total rushing attempts and top 5 in rushing yards per attempt, highlighting their willingness to commit to the run. I expect both teams to continue to rely heavily on the rushing attack, which will limit the possibility of explosive plays and keep the clock moving throughout the entirety of the game.
– Austin MacMillan

Be sure to follow the updated consensus NFL lines for Week 4 to monitor how these lines move ahead of kickoff.

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