Malott’s Believe It or Not Week 4

Sep 29, 2022 - 11:00 PM

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Last week, I wrote:

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2022/9/22/23367386/malotts-believe-it-or-not-week-3

FANTASY FOOTBALL

First off, I am all over the Detroit Lions+6 on the road against the Minnesota Vikings. I’ve got a feeling you can’t buy a better motivator than Dan Campbell and the Lions can hang with anybody.

Look, the Lions didn’t win, but they did come within 6 points of the Vikings. That’s 1/1 on the week!

I like the Raiders-1.5 on the road against the Titans because obviously I’m a hater. Or is it because the Titans just got absolutely demolished on Monday Night Football and now you expect me to believe they also hold against the Raiders to cap a short week? Okay?

Again, I like these young NFL coaches and think the Dolphins+5.5 can hang with the Bills at home in Miami. It’s a week-to-week league and a gameplan goes a long way.

Believe it or not, the Dolphins are 3-0 and make us winners on picking two underdogs to spoil and makes us real bad at picking anything else, frankly.

I think the Colts, their fanbase and the rest of the world would love for them to come out and spoil the Kansas City Chief’s season at home here in Indy but it’s just not going to happen and there’s nothing we can do about it this time, methinks. The Chiefs -5.5 should win this going away.

I’m never happier to be wrong than when I pick the Colts to lose and they win instead.

Also, I think the Cardinals +3.5, Broncos+1.5 and Giants-1 all hold it down at home this week.

I really don’t want to talk about any of this. Goodness. 11-10 is a final score of a coed softball league. I would know because I played in them.

Clearly, I am off to a rough start this year and I think it’s because I’m trying to pick winners while looking at the spread. I think you have to separate what the score differential is expected to be and who is expected to win in terms of how you’d bet it. You might bet a team to cover and their opponent to win. That’s not uncommon.

THIS WEEK

The Miami Dolphins +3.5 are +150 straight up and I would take both of those bets against the Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 and -175. I don’t believe in the Bengals and I absolutely see the Dolphins winning their Division if the Bills fall off at all.

It’s cheeky, but your Indianapolis Colts are -3.5 and -180 straight up and I’d bet they’re able to cover at home against a beat-up Tennessee Titans +3.5 and +150 straight up.

The Baltimore Ravens +3 and +130 straight up are beating the Buffalo Bills -3 and -150 straight up.

The Kansas City Chiefs +1 and -115 straight up the Los Angeles Rams +1.5 and +100 straight up are big road winners on Sunday and Monday night.

DAILY FANTASY SPORTS (DFS)

When I checked Draftkings for a classic lineup to share, I came away thinking Carson Wentz and company on the road when I looked at their value. With Dallas starting Cooper Rush at QB, it could give the Commanders one too many opportunities on offense and they could even spoil, but I wouldn’t even go that far. Ijust think for the money, you can get Wentz, Curtis Samuel, and Antonio Gibson all for around $6,000 each (which is what I call starter money) and given their average points-per-game versus their overall value and considering their matchup, I like them as a base. I still got to field Amari Cooper, Christian Kirk, Jaylen Waddle, using Jets TE Tyler Conklin (24 targets through 3 weeks as a TE is high volume and for $3,600...) and getting a soft matchup with Denver $2,700 on the road in Las Vegas (0-3). Who you got?

FANTASY FOOTBALL

I’m 2-1 in my only cash league and am riding high so long as Diggs and Waddle hold Najee Harris and Antonio Gibson et al together for me. In our staff league, I’m 1-2 and I’m always assuming the Stampede Blue staff are going to give me their best ball each and every week after they goaded me into picking Jonathan Taylor first overall (Christian McCaffery was 1st on my PPR sheet). This week, I’m due to get beat by 7 by Chris Blystone. I went 0QB in the staff league and Kirk Cousins has let me down. I have Tua and went 0TE in the cash league. In both cases, I prioritize WR/RB depth because the QB/TE situations tend to just pan out so that you can get a fringe Top-10 QB/TE (I was able to just pick up Carson Wentz off the waiver wire again, for example).

I’m aware of the market, I’m writing that he’s viable in fantasy football and daily fantasy sports. I think for next year, I will reach for QB/TE and just bank on drafting depth better anyway. I’m kicking myself already for not just getting my guy (like I preached). I have a practice league I’m 3-0 in because I was able to take Travis Kelce with my 2nd pick and then take Lamar Jackson in the 5th-6th round. Obviously, they have to fall to you, but again, I could’ve just gotten a guy instead of neglecting the position for the sake of establishing depth. Again, I absolutely think you can win or lose a league on draft night. How’s it going for you?