NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

Oct 2, 2022 - 10:37 AM

This season at BettingPros, we’re asking some of our experts to give their top picks on the Week 4 NFL slate. Here are all of their picks, best bets, and predictions for Week 4.

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NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions: Spreads (2022)

Cardinals (+1.5) at Panthers

If you give me the opportunity to bet on Cardinals HC Kliff Kingsbury as a road dog (14-3-2 ATS) and against Panthers HC Matt Rhule as a home favorite (1-7 ATS), I’m going to do it. Panthers QB Baker Mayfield ranks No. 32 in the league in composite expected points added and completion percentage over expectation (-0.057, per RBs Don’t Matter). He really might be the worst starting quarterback in Week 4. Say what you want about Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, but he’s no worse than average — and he’s probably a top-10 player at the position. The homefield advantage the Panthers theoretically have in this game isn’t enough to outweigh the massive difference between Murray and Mayfield.
– Matthew Freedman

Ravens (+3) vs. Bills

The Ravens have been a preferred target for the sharps this week, and I’m in full agreement. The Bills are undoubtedly the best team in football at full strength, but they’re far from full strength at the moment. Their entire starting secondary has either been ruled out or is questionable, and two defensive linemen are also questionable. That’s simply not a good formula for stopping Lamar Jackson, who has looked unstoppable to start the year. He’s leading the league in touchdown passes and adjusted net yards per attempt as a passer, and he also leads the league in yards per carry. The Ravens took their foot off the gas in Week 2 vs. the Dolphins, but don’t expect them to make the same mistake vs. the Bills. The Ravens have also been outstanding when getting points, going 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games as underdogs.
– Matt LaMarca

Giants (-3) vs. Bears

The battle of two 2-1 teams is not as exciting as their records indicate. The Giants arrive fresh off their loss to a backup QB, after narrow victories over the Titans and Panthers. The Bears have somehow eeked out two wins with Justin Fields completing 23 passes through three games. Both teams have run the ball effectively on the offensive side, ranking in the top four in terms of total rushing yards. The difference in this game will be the Bears inability to pass the ball and their poor run defense, 31st in rushing yards allowed, against Saquon Barkley.
– Dylan Santora

Raiders (-2) vs. Broncos

Though the Raiders enter Week 3 as the only 0-3 team in the NFL, they are not as bad as their record indicates. They have been defined by good and bad halves of football through the first 3 weeks, being outscored by their opponents 64-16 in their bad halves, but outscoring opponents 48-7 in their good halves. Meanwhile, the Nathaniel Hackett-Russell Wilson experiment has been a complete disaster in Denver, as the Broncos have failed to eclipse 16 points in any of their matchups. I expect for the Raiders to put a full game together and cover this short spread against a hapless Denver offense in front of a raucous home crowd in Las Vegas.
– Austin MacMillan

NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions: Totals (2022)

Browns vs. Falcons UNDER 49.5

We’re getting a QB matchup between Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota, and the total is nearly 50? Yes, all three of Atlanta’s games this season have hit the 50-point mark, and 2 of 3 Cleveland games have produced 50 or more points. Neither of these defenses is a world-beater — and the Browns’ defense will be less imposing if edge rusher Myles Garrett is out following an early-week car crash — but I don’t think these offenses have enough juice to get this game to the 50-point mark.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Vikings vs. Saints UNDER 43.5

There are so many things working against the offenses in this spot. For starters, this game will be played across the pond, resulting in a 9 a.m. ET start time. The under has gone just 8-8 in 16 previous 9 a.m. ET contests, but totals in this range have been a sweet spot for the under. There have been five games with a total between 42 and 45, and the under is 4-1 in those contests. While that’s not a big enough sample size to make any conclusions, there are plenty of other reasons to consider the under in this spot. The Saints are incredibly banged up in their backfield, with Jameis Winston and Alvin Kamara both dealing with injuries. They’ve scored just 24 total points over the past two weeks, and Winston, in particular, has not looked impressive. The Vikings are also dealing with an injury to Dalvin Cook, and while that’s not nearly as important, their offense hasn’t exactly been firing on all cylinders to start the year. I expect them to struggle against a solid Saints defense.
– Matt LaMarca

Jaguars vs. Eagles OVER 46

Perhaps it’s the Jaguars’ ugly past decade that has the public fading them, but they’re quietly an elite offense. The Jaguars (7th) and the Eagles (5th) both rank Top 10 in offensive points per game. Similarly, both teams are outscoring opponents at an elite rate; the Eagles rank third in points margin, while the Jaguars rank second. While both teams also have solid defenses, 46 points is too low for two of the best-scoring teams in the NFL.
– Ben Wolbransky

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers OVER 45

This game is a rematch of Super Bowl LV, which saw the Bucs defeat the Chiefs 31-9. The Bucs’ defense arrives in similar form from their postseason run, having only given up 3, 10, and 14 points in the first three games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ offense has not been impressive since their opening week 44-point outburst versus the Cardinals. That said, a total of only 45 for offenses led by Brady and Mahomes caught my eye at first glance. I think three weeks for Mahomes to grow accustomed to his Tyreek Hill-less weapons, and the return of Mike Evans on the Bucs side, give the offenses enough juice to hit the over.
– Dylan Santora

Bears vs. Giants UNDER 39.5

This matchup represents the lowest point total on the board in Week 4, and for good reason. The Giants and the Bears are undoubtedly the worst passing offenses in the NFL, ranking 31st and 32nd in the league in net yards per pass attempt, respectively. In fact, the Bears’ passing attack is so bad that Geno Smith completed 9 more passes in Week 3 than Justin Fields has completed this entire season… yikes. On the flip side, both teams rank within the top 7 in total rushing attempts and top 5 in rushing yards per attempt, highlighting their willingness to commit to the run. I expect both teams to continue to rely heavily on the rushing attack, which will limit the possibility of explosive plays and keep the clock moving throughout the entirety of the game.
– Austin MacMillan

Be sure to follow the updated consensus NFL lines for Week 4 to monitor how these lines move ahead of kickoff.

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