NFL Week 5 Early Odds, Picks & Predictions: 49ers vs. Panthers (2022)

Oct 4, 2022 - 1:01 PM

We’re here to get you ready for Week 5. You can check out all of our early Week 5 NFL content below, including our early picks and predictions for the week ahead. And here’s a closer look at the NFL Week 5 matchup: 49ers vs. Panthers.

• Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 5 Early Bets and Trends
• NFL Week 5 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions
• Video: NFL Week 5 Early Odds, Picks & Predictions

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NFL Week 5 Early Odds, Picks & Predictions: 49ers vs. Panthers

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

49ers Offense vs. Panthers Defense

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	-0.041	20	-0.05	10	-10
Total SR	39.8%	27	41.4%	7	-20
Total DVOA	-7.4%	21	-0.9%	12	-9
Dropback EPA	0.006	18	0.022	12	-6
Dropback SR	41.4%	25	42.4%	9	-16
Pass DVOA	12.0%	16	10.0%	19	3
Adj. Sack Rate	6.3%	15	3.9%	31	16
Rush EPA	-0.090	20	-0.154	9	-11
Rush SR	38.2%	24	39.8%	15	-9
Rush DVOA	-16.6%	24	-14.1%	10	-14
Adj. Line Yards	4.09	21	4.46	16	-5
Yards per Play	5.5	14	5	8	-6
Points per Game	71	27	85	13	-14

Panthers Offense vs. 49ers Defense

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	-0.147	32	-0.177	1	-31
Total SR	37.6%	31	37.1%	1	-30
Total DVOA	-22.7%	31	-29.5%	1	-30
Dropback EPA	-0.188	32	-0.184	3	-29
Dropback SR	33.8%	32	39.6%	2	-30
Pass DVOA	-31.3%	31	-26.7%	4	-27
Adj. Sack Rate	9.3%	28	10.0%	3	-25
Rush EPA	-0.073	18	-0.165	8	-10
Rush SR	44.3%	11	32.6%	2	-9
Rush DVOA	-4.4%	16	-33.3%	1	-15
Adj. Line Yards	4.73	8	3.32	1	-7
Yards per Play	4.9	27	3.8	1	-26
Points per Game	78	17	46	1	-16

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What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting “against the spread” refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.

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