NFL Week 5 Early Odds, Picks & Predictions: Bears vs. Vikings (2022)

Oct 4, 2022 - 1:00 PM

We’re here to get you ready for Week 5. You can check out all of our early Week 5 NFL content below, including our early picks and predictions for the week ahead. And here’s a closer look at the NFL Week 5 matchup: Bears vs. Vikings.

• Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 5 Early Bets and Trends
• NFL Week 5 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions
• Video: NFL Week 5 Early Odds, Picks & Predictions

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top-rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

NFL Week 5 Early Odds, Picks & Predictions: Bears vs. Vikings

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Bears Offense vs. Vikings Defense

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	-0.046	21	0.049	23	2
Total SR	36.5%	32	48.5%	30	-2
Total DVOA	-18.7%	29	10.2%	26	-3
Dropback EPA	-0.074	26	0.058	19	-7
Dropback SR	34.0%	31	46.9%	23	-8
Pass DVOA	-33.9%	32	11.6%	20	-12
Adj. Sack Rate	18.4%	32	6.8%	13	-19
Rush EPA	-0.022	13	0.035	26	13
Rush SR	38.8%	21	50.9%	29	8
Rush DVOA	1.2%	11	8.5%	27	16
Adj. Line Yards	4.67	11	4.89	26	15
Yards per Play	5	24	6	25	1
Points per Game	64	31	80	12	-19

Vikings Offense vs. Bears Defense

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	0.009	13	0.011	14	1
Total SR	48.1%	6	44.8%	20	14
Total DVOA	5.2%	13	2.5%	15	2
Dropback EPA	0.035	17	0.053	18	1
Dropback SR	48.6%	10	44.9%	16	6
Pass DVOA	14.5%	15	6.0%	15	0
Adj. Sack Rate	4.6%	6	6.2%	19	13
Rush EPA	-0.044	16	-0.030	21	5
Rush SR	47.1%	6	44.8%	24	18
Rush DVOA	2.0%	10	-0.2%	24	14
Adj. Line Yards	4.71	9	4.59	20	11
Yards per Play	5.4	16	5.6	16	0
Points per Game	86	15	77	11	-4

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What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting “against the spread” refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

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