NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 5: Picks & Predictions (2022)

Oct 5, 2022 - 2:18 PM

In a week where five of the top six favorites won outright, that should mean there was not too much carnage in survivor pools. The Detroit Lions (-230) were the only one of the top six favorites who did lose. Their defeat should be used to remind survivor pool contestants to always check injury reports before making selections, as many that were willing to choose Detroit would have likely backed off them after learning that D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown would be ruled out.

As ESPN Stats & Info pointed out on Twitter, there has been tremendous parity around the NFL this year. That is great for the league but very dangerous and usually not ideal for survivor pools.

15 NFL teams, including the two who played on Monday Night Football last night, have started 2-2. That ties 2017 for the most 2-2 teams in a single season in NFL history. pic.twitter.com/2tIXzS91DG

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 4, 2022

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 5 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

Safest Picks

Buffalo Bills (-900), Green Bay Packers (-430), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-400)

Welcome to the NFL, Kenny Pickett. All the Pittsburgh rookie quarterback is tasked with is going on the road and facing a Buffalo team that was the consensus favorite to win the Super Bowl. The Steelers ran their record to 0-7 in the seven games star defensive end T.J. Watt has missed in his career. And while the Bills have defensive injuries of their own, they played well enough to shut out the Ravens in the second half last week, capping the largest comeback (17 points) of Josh Allen’s young career. Pittsburgh went into Buffalo and beat the Bills 23-16 in Week 1 last year, but do not expect history to repeat this week.

If you did not use Green Bay last week out of fear that the Packers opposed Bill Belichick, there will also be many that fear using them this week as they travel across the pond to play the Giants in London. Yes, New York is off to its best start (3-1) since 2011, and yes, Green Bay has won back-to-back games by three or fewer points. However, Daniel Jones left last week’s game with an ankle injury and won’t be 100% if he suits up. And Green Bay is usually solid as big favorites, going 5-3 ATS in its last eight games when favored by at least a touchdown. So do not let the travel worry you, as Aaron Rodgers will ball out no matter where this game is played.

Tampa Bay was outclassed by a better (at least at this point in the season) Kansas City squad, but the Buccaneers did not do themselves any favors with two first-half fumbles that aided in burying themselves in an 18-point hole. Tampa Bay showed signs of life offensively, however, receiving a much-needed jolt with the return of Mike Evans from a one-game suspension. The Buccaneers had a brutal schedule to this point, as their first four opponents were a combined 24 games over .500 last year. However, Tampa Bay has covered the spread in four of its last five home meetings with Atlanta, and this will be an excellent “get-right” opportunity while playing in its third consecutive home game.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Kansas City Chiefs (-360), Minnesota Vikings (-320), San Francisco 49ers (-290)

The Chiefs are 13-2 SU in their last 15 meetings with the Raiders, but this is still a division game, and Las Vegas won in Arrowhead 40-32 in 2020. The Raiders rushed for 212 yards against Denver, and Kansas City has been known not to have the best run defense. The Chiefs are likely not in danger of losing this game, but there will be much better spots to use them.

Yet another divisional game we are staying far away from is Minnesota against Chicago. The Vikings are off to their best start (3-1) since 2016, and the Bears have the fewest completions by any team through four games since 1982. However, Minnesota is playing the week after a trip to London, and we would not be surprised if it came out flat after the long travel and readjusting to the time difference.

San Francisco turned in a vintage 49ers performance on Monday Night, holding the Rams without a touchdown in a 20-9 dominating victory. Carolina is off to its worst start since 2016 (1-3) and is just 11-26 under head coach Matt Rhule. However, the Panthers are a dangerous underdog playing their third consecutive home game, while San Francisco travels across the country on a short week.

Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool

Jacksonville Jaguars (-330)

The reason for contrarian plays in survivor pools is to save better teams for later in the season when picking games becomes increasingly more complex and to avoid following the masses with the week’s likely most popular pick in the event of a massive upset. There is no more prototypical contrarian play this week than the Jaguars over the Texans. Since the start of last season, Houston is 4-0 versus Jacksonville and 5-27-1 against the rest of the NFL. However, Trevor Lawrence has already made massive strides under head coach Doug Pederson, entering last week with the highest Total QBR increase from 2021 to 2022 among quarterbacks with a minimum of 50 passes thrown. A monsoon in Philadelphia aided Lawrence’s five turnovers (four fumbles, one interception) in Week 4. Better conditions should make all the difference in helping him earn his first career win over Houston.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

The post NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 5: Picks & Predictions (2022) appeared first on BettingPros.