NFL Week 12 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

Nov 25, 2022 - 3:46 PM

Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.

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Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Mark Andrews
Odds: +750 via DraftKings

Both teams are near the league leaders in points allowed in the first quarter. It would not be surprising if this game becomes a defensive affair, but the Ravens have a better chance of breaking the drought first. Andrews has not received 10 targets since week six, but he missed a week due to injury. Last week, he received eight targets but did not lead the team. Expect them to get him involved early and often against a defense that allows 11 yards per completion. In the Jaguars’ last game, they gave up six catches for 81 yards and one TD to Travis Kelce.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cleveland Browns

Nick Chubb
Odds: +600 via FanDuel

This game is a great spot to bet Chubb to score first. Rachaad White and Leonard Fournette are hovering around the same odds as Chubb, but they do not have a great chance of scoring. The Buccaneers are dead last in rushing yards per game with 70.7 yards per game. Many options could get the first score due to the way Brady spreads the ball around, but the Browns essentially have one or two guys that can do it. Chubb offers the least amount of variance in this game. Also, an underdog running back is usually a safe bet for this market.

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Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins

Raheem Mostert
Odds: +850 via DraftKings

The Texans are the worst team in the league at defending the run, so betting on an opposing running back is the most consistent way to bet on their games in this market. Mostert is nearly double the odds of Jeff Wilson Jr., Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, which makes him a great value. The Dolphins are entering this game following a bye week, and in their previous contest, Mostert received eight carries and four targets. His breakaway speed is also a factor, as he can snap one off at any moment. Mostert is questionable with a knee injury and has not practiced this week, but it is unclear if it will restrict him from this game. If he does not play, Wilson is the best bet, and be sure to check here for the best odds.

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Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders

Curtis Samuel
Odds: +1200 via FanDuel

Samuel scored last week but was dealing with a shin injury leading into it. He has no injury designation this week and provides excellent value. He is involved in the run game and through the air, and they run designed plays just for him to touch the ball. The Commanders’ defense is good at stopping what Atlanta likes to do, which is running the football, so the best side to bet on is Washington. The Falcons are not particularly good anywhere on defense, and Samuel provides a little bit of both the rushing and passing attack. He is averaging 6.3 yards per carry and 10.3 yards per catch. The Falcons have allowed 5.9 yards per play this season (fourth worst).

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Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans

Tyler Boyd
Odds: +1200 via FanDuel

Ja’Marr Chase has logged multiple limited practices in his return from injury this week. He is trending toward playing, but it is unclear if he will be on snap restrictions during the game. Boyd’s numbers have inflated due to Chase’s return and now offers solid value. The Titans have allowed 266.8 passing yards per game this season, and the Bengals are fourth in passing yards per game. Before Chase’s injury, Boyd was averaging around five targets per game as the third wideout. Any Bengals’ wideout can break away, and Boyd has the most value.

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Chicago Bears @ New York Jets

James Robinson
Odds: +750 via DraftKings

There is some uncertainty around Justin Fields’ status for the game. He has participated in a limited capacity this week but says he has a separated shoulder, so it does not sound great. The Jets benched Zach Wilson, and Mike White will start in his place this week. The Bears allow 142.6 rushing yards per game, so betting on a Jets running back is not a terrible play. Michael Carter and Robinson have split the carries in the past two games, and it could be either player. Robinson has not scored on the ground for his new team but has a good chance in this matchup.

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Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers

Latavius Murray
Odds: +600 via DraftKings

The Broncos released Melvin Gordon after losing a fumble last week against the Raiders. Newly acquired running back Chase Edmonds was placed on injured reserve this week, and the Broncos will use Murray and Marlon Mack. Murray got 17 rush attempts last week and has a solid matchup against the Panthers this week. The Panthers have allowed 164.7 rushing yards per game in their previous three games, which is the fourth-worst in the league. Sam Darnold will be making his first start of the season for the Panthers, and it is not a good matchup for him. Russell Wilson has not been playing well this season, so Murray is the best play.

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Las Vegas Raiders @ Seattle Seahawks

Davante Adams
Odds: +750 via DraftKings

Adams is fourth in odds for this market and is the same price as DK Metcalf, who has four TDs this season compared to Adams’ 10. It would be silly not to play this number, especially after his performance last week. He is on a tear in his previous three games, and he has been doing it against good defenses. Adams is averaging 137.7 receiving yards per game and has five TDs in his last three games. He is on another level, which is no surprise because he has been for a few seasons. Derek Carr is starting to put the ball on him, and their chemistry is building. Best not to overthink this play, as it presents tremendous value.

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Los Angeles Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals

Keenan Allen
Odds: +800 via DraftKings

Both defenses are not very good. They are ranked in the bottom five in points allowed per game and allow teams to convert third downs at a high rate. The Chargers convert 42.8% of their third downs on offense, so it makes sense to play someone from their team. Allen played well in his return to action last week. He received eight targets and caught five for 94 yards. He has not found the end zone in the three games he has played this season but remains a reliable target.

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New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers

Christian McCaffrey
Odds: +430 via FanDuel

Deebo Samuel has been limited at practice all week due to a hamstring injury and will most likely carry an injury designation into the game. That leaves McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell to handle the work in the backfield, assuming they use Samuel less because of his injury. The Saints have allowed the most rushing yards per game in their last three games at 184.3 yards. He ran just seven times in the blowout victory last week, but in the two games prior, he had a rushing TD in each and averaged 16 carries. McCaffrey’s odds are much higher than every other player in this market. His matchup makes him a safe play, and the oddsmakers agree.

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Los Angeles Rams @ Kansas City Chiefs

JuJu Smith-Schuster
Odds: +480 via Caesars

Bryce Perkins is starting at quarterback for the Rams. Allen Robinson and Tyler Higbee have been limited in practice this week. The Chiefs are likely the best side to bet. As far as matchups, the Rams are weaker at defending the pass. They have allowed 242.3 passing yards per game in their last three games, compared to just 72.3 rushing yards per game. Before his injury, Smith-Schuster was receiving a steady stream of targets weekly. He averaged 7.5 targets per week before receiving just four in week 10 prior to being concussed. He practiced without limitations, so he should be good to play this week. Not all sportsbooks have released odds for this market, so check here to bet the best number.

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