NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12 Games

Nov 27, 2022 - 2:06 PM

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Before the twelfth Sunday of the 2022 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for the Week 12 games. You can CLICK HERE for straight up NFL picks without regard to the spread. You can find all of the NFL betting lines via DraftKings SportsBook.

My overall record so far is 76-80-8. That’s behind the BGN Community, which is 78-78-8.

Here are the latest suggestions when trying to beat the odds. Also, don’t forget to check out our weekly picks and previews of every game on The SB Nation NFL Show’s The Look Ahead podcast featuring RJ Ochoa, Rob “Stats” Guerrera, and me.

NFL WEEK 12 GAMES

HOUSTON TEXANS at MIAMI DOLPHINS (-14): The Dolphins are undefeated this season when Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t miss time due to injury. They’re averaging 35 points per game over the past three weeks. Miami is quite capable of covering the spread against the NFL’s worst team quarterbacked by Kyle Allen. PICK: Dolphins -14

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3.5) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: Lamar Jackson since Week 4: 6 TD, 5 INT, 79.8 passer rating. The Ravens didn’t even score a touchdown last week until later in the game ... and it came on a very short field after a takeaway. Hard to give Baltimore’s offense the benefit of the doubt right now. PICK: Jaguars +3.5

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-1) at TENNESSEE TITANS: Betting against Mike Vrabel getting points is a risky proposition. No team has a better winning percentage as underdogs since the Titans hired him in 2018. Tennessee’s defense has stifled opponents for quite a stretch now, inspiring confidence that they can limit the damage done by Joe Burrow and co. PICK: Titans +1

CHICAGO BEARS at NEW YORK JETS (-7): The last time Mike White started a game, he threw four interceptions. This isn’t to say that’ll happen again but he’s hardly a lock to be a big improvement of Zach Wilson. Trevor Siemian offers a level of competency to make me think the Bears can hang in this game, if not outright win it. PICK: Bears +7

ATLANTA FALCONS at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (-3.5): The Commanders have been hot but their offense isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. Even if they win, it’s going to be a close one. PICK: Falcons +3.5

DENVER BRONCOS (-1) at CAROLINA PANTHERS: The Broncos’ vibes are so bad that it’s impossible to pick them. The Panthers have at least been somewhat competent under Steve Wilkes? Although it’s tough to feel good about picking Sam Darnold’s side. Just avoid betting this game. PICK: Panthers +1

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3.5) at CLEVELAND BROWNS: The Bucs can shut down the Browns’ running game and score enough to cover. Tampa seems like they might be figuring things out. PICK: Buccaneers -3.5

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-4): Seattle is well-rested coming off their bye. They’re going to be able to get their running game back on track in a win. PICK: Seahawks -4

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-3) at ARIZONA CARDINALS: In the battle of two uninspiring sides, I’ll lean with Justin Herbert. PICK: Chargers -3

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-8.5): DeMeco Ryans’ defense hasn’t allowed an opponent to score in the second half since Week 7. Not too shabby. The Saints can’t produce enough points to cover the spread against a surging San Francisco squad. PICK: 49ers -8.5

LOS ANGELES RAMS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-15.5): The Rams suck. PICK: Chiefs -15.5

GREEN BAY PACKERS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-6.5): The Eagles are scoring 27 points per game at home this season. The Packers are scoring 13.6 points per game on the road this season. It would not be out of character, then, for Philly to be able to cover this spread. Especially considering the Birds have an edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The Eagles are going to bounce back with a comfortable win in their all-black look. PICK: Eagles -6.5

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2.5): The Steelers have a good run defense that can limit Jonathan Taylor’s damage in what should be a close game. With points at a premium, I’ll take them in a game where I like Pittsburgh outright. You really leaning with Jeff Saturday over Mike Tomlin? PICK: Steelers +2.5