Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 13 Early Bets and Trends

Nov 28, 2022 - 4:23 AM

For the past few NFL seasons, each Sunday night I’ve written an early bets piece highlighting some applicable trends I’ve noticed for the upcoming week.

I’m not a trends bettor, but I find that historical situational data helps me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.

So here are some trends for Week 13 as well as a few early bets I like based on the current lines in the market and my early personal projections, which I will update throughout the week along with our premium BettingPros spread projections.

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

Note: For more of my early Week 13 bets, check out the BettingPros App.

All lines and odds are from the BettingPros NFL odds page and as of Nov. 27. All the historical trends information is from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).

Washington Commanders at New York Giants

Check out our Commanders at Giants matchup page.

• Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, 1 pm ET
• Location: MetLife Stadium
• Consensus Spread: Giants +1.5

Commanders at Giants: 2022 ATS Records

• Commanders ATS: 7-4-1 (19.5% ROI)
• Giants ATS: 8-3 (40.2% ROI)

New York Giants Trends

• QB Daniel Jones: 23-14 ATS (19.8% ROI) as underdog
• QB Daniel Jones: 10-5 ATS (28.3% ROI) in division
• QB Daniel Jones: 8-3 ATS (39.8% ROI) as underdog in division

Commanders at Giants: Early Bet

• Best Line: Giants +2 (-110, DraftKings)
• Early Projection: Giants +0.25

Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the early line of +2.

If you like a shorter underdog, historically it has been more profitable to bet it on the moneyline than against the spread. This has been the case for underdogs of less than a touchdown.

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Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers

Check out our Dolphins at 49ers matchup page.

• Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
• Location: Levi’s Stadium
• Consensus Spread: Dolphins +3

Dolphins at 49ers: 2022 ATS Records

• Dolphins ATS: 6-5 (3.8% ROI)
• 49ers ATS: 6-5 (4.2% ROI)

Miami Dolphins Trend

• QB Tua Tagovailoa: 6-2 ATS (43.7% ROI) in 2022 games with a 90% snap rate

San Francisco 49ers Trends

• HC Kyle Shanahan: 18-28-1 ATS (16.7% ROI for faders) as favorite
• HC Kyle Shanahan: 17-24-1 ATS (13.1% ROI for faders) at home
• HC Kyle Shanahan: 9-16-1 ATS (22.0% ROI for faders) as home favorite

Dolphins at 49ers: Early Bet

• Best Line: Dolphins +4 (-115, DraftKings)
• Early Projection: Dolphins +3

Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the lookahead line of +4.5.

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Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders

Check out our Chargers at Raiders matchup page.

• Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
• Location: Allegiant Stadium
• Consensus Spread: Raiders +2.5

Chargers at Raiders: 2022 ATS Records

• Chargers ATS: 7-4 (21.4% ROI)
• Raiders ATS: 5-6 (-11.6% ROI)

Las Vegas Raiders Trends

• QB Derek Carr: 51-42-1 ATS (6.4% ROI) as underdog
• QB Derek Carr: 3-1 ATS (46.5% ROI) as 2022 underdog
• 2022 Underdogs: 99-75-4 ATS (8.8% ROI)
• 2022 Underdogs: 33-20 ATS (19.2% ROI) in division

Chargers at Raiders: Early Bet

• Best Line: Raiders +2.5 (-105, DraftKings)
• Early Projection: Raiders -1

Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the early line of +2.5.

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