NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 13: Picks & Predictions (2022)

Nov 30, 2022 - 11:48 AM

In last week’s column, we tipped the Baltimore Ravens as one of our “risky plays” against the Jacksonville Jaguars, citing several injuries and the fact that the Jaguars play much better at home than on the road. Those that did not follow our advice in their survivor pools were dealt a painful blow.

The Jaguars entered the day 0-183 in franchise history when trailing by 7+ in the final minute of regulation.

After beating the Ravens, they can finally add a 1 in the win column. pic.twitter.com/vYhoIIh2xD

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 27, 2022

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 13 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

Safest Picks

Dallas Cowboys (-400), Cleveland Browns (-300) 

The Dallas Cowboys followed up their 37-point road win over a previously 8-1 Minnesota Vikings (the biggest road victory in franchise history) with a tidy eight-point home win on Thanksgiving over the Giants. Dallas looked like the Super Bowl contenders in the second half, outscoring New York 21-7, with New York’s only touchdown coming in garbage time with Dallas playing prevent defense. Now Dallas faces a Colts team on a short week and one that has scored 20 or fewer points in nine games (tied for the most in the NFL entering Week 12). Indianapolis does not have the firepower to keep up offensively with Dallas, and a shaky offensive line that has had trouble keeping their quarterbacks upright faces one of the most menacing defensive fronts in the league. Micah Parsons and company could have a field day in this game.

Cleveland belongs in the risky play category for many reasons, most notably that Deshaun Watson, this week’s starting quarterback, has not played in a regular season game since January 3, 2021. However, the pickings are likely slim in Week 13 of a survivor pool, and one could do much worse than fading a 1-9-1 Texans team that is off to its worst start since 2005. Houston is on pace to be a historically lousy rushing defense (168.6 rushing YPG allowed is the worst in the league), and that is a death sentence when facing Nick Chubb, who is coming off his 28th game with 100+ rushing yards (second-most in team history). Chubb is the third player in NFL history with 950+ rushing yards and 8+ rushing touchdowns in each of his first five seasons, so it will not matter much how rusty Watson is in his first live regular season action in almost two years.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Baltimore Ravens (-400), Seattle Seahawks (-215) 

After Baltimore slept through its 13-3 victory over Carolina two weeks ago, the Ravens suffered their third loss this season when leading by multiple scores in the fourth quarter. This time, it was their first loss against a team with fewer than seven wins, as their previous three losses had come against the Dolphins, Bills, and Giants. Yes, the Broncos are an abysmal offensive club, with a 12.0 ppg average during their three-game losing streak. Still, something has been off in Baltimore the last couple of weeks, and they cannot be trusted, even against the putrid Broncos.

The Seahawks lost to a Raiders team that had been 1-7 against all teams in the NFL, not named the Denver Broncos, and allowed 40 points (for the second time this season) to boot. The Rams are a dumpster fire right now with no intention of playing anybody worth anything who might be slightly banged up down the stretch. However, Los Angeles held Kansas City to 26 points at Arrowhead (even if the Chiefs were not full throttle). In a divisional road game, we would much rather use Cleveland if we have them available in survivor pools.

Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool

Detroit Lions (-116)

The Lions are the smallest favorites on the board this week but make for an interesting contrarian play off extended rest at home. The Jaguars are 1-21 SU in their last 22 road games. And Detroit did not look like the pushover it had been for much of the previous two decades on Thanksgiving, going toe-to-toe with the Bills with an excellent chance to have beaten them if not for questionable play-calling down the stretch. Detroit had won three consecutive games before a narrow loss to Buffalo, and while Jacksonville has won 4+ games for the first time since 2019, now is not the time to get off the Lions’ bandwagon.

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