Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions (Bills vs. Patriots)
Dec 1, 2022 - 5:03 PMIn Week 13 of our Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions, we get to preview the 8-3 Buffalo Bills vs. the 6-5 New England Patriots. This will be the year’s first matchup between the two division rivals as they will face off again in the last week of the season.
As it stands today, the Patriots are on the outside looking in for the last playoff spot as they sit one game back of the Jets for the seven-seed. Meanwhile, the Bills currently are tied with the Dolphins at 8-3, but due to a loss in Miami back in Week 3 are currently the five seed in the AFC. This means both teams have a lot to play for on Thursday night, so it should be a fun matchup. Finally, the weather is calling for frigid temperatures of 34 degrees, but the good news is that there is no rain, snow, or high winds in the forecast for this matchup.
- Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks
- NFL Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay
- Thursday Night Football Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top-rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
This week we will highlight the Same Game Parlay function on DraftKings. If you want to learn more about the same game parlay, click here. This function allows you to get alternative player props that are more conservative. Even though these more conservative individual props have worse odds, once you parlay them, you can find ways to get to an overall bet that will give you plus odds on the week. In this article, we will highlight the parlay and then break down each individual bet.
- Josh Allen rushing yards over 39.5
- Jakobi Meyers receiving yards over 34.5
- Stefon Diggs receiving yards over 69.5
Player: Josh Allen
Alternative Player Prop: 39.5 Rushing Yards
Recommendation: Bet the Over
Josh Allen has been an elite dual-threat quarterback all season long. This season Allen is the only quarterback inside the top five in passing yards and rushing yards among quarterbacks. This dual-threat ability has allowed Allen to rush for over 40 yards in eight of 11 games so far in 2022. This should be good news for a player like Allen as this week’s opponent, the Patriots, has allowed the sixth most rushing yards to quarterbacks on the season. This includes big rushing performances from Lamar Jackson (11-107) and Justin Fields (14-82-1). A lot of this has to do with the Patriots playing a lot of man coverage which opens more running lanes for mobile quarterbacks. In 2021, Allen did just that vs. the Patriots as he rushed for (6-39), (12-64), and (6-66). In a game where the cold weather could play a factor for the passing offense, look for Allen to take to the ground and hit his over of 40 yards in Week 13.
Player: Jakobi Meyers
Alternative Player Prop: 34.5 Receiving Yards
Recommendation: Bet the Over
Jakobi Meyers has been solid all year long, leading the Patriots in targets, receiving yards, and touchdowns. Meyers is dealing with a shoulder injury that kept him out of some of the Vikings game, but due to the Patriots playing last Thursday night, he should be good to go for this contest. This season Meyers has eclipsed the 35-receiving-yard mark in every game except one. Meyers’ role is unique as he is the number one wide receiver but plays primarily in the slot. This is good news for Meyers, as the Bills have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the slot over the past six weeks. This includes allowing solid games to wide receivers with similar roles like Amon-Ra St. Brown (9-122-1) and Garrett Wilson (8-92) during that timeframe. With the Bills’ pass defense still dealing with a lot of injuries, Meyers should be in for a nice day this week.
Player: Stefon Diggs
Player Prop: 69.5 Receiving Yards
Recommendation: Bet the Over
Stefon Diggs has been on fire this season as he currently sits second in receptions, third in receiving yards, and third in receiving touchdowns in 2022. This elite production has led to Diggs getting over 70 receiving yards in nine of 11 games. The Patriots have been solid overall vs. wide receivers this season, but when facing the top wide receivers in the league, they have struggled. Tyreek Hill (8-94) and Justin Jefferson (9-139-1) both had big days vs. the Patriots’ secondary earlier this year. Diggs has faced the Patriots five times as a member of the Buffalo Bills and has gone over 70 yards in three of five games. In the two games where he didn’t go over 70 yards, the Bills only threw the ball 25 and 30 times. This season Allen has only failed to throw the ball 30 times in two games, so it’s likely that the volume will be there for Diggs to hit his over in Week 13.
Single Game Parlay Odds: +230 on DraftKings
Season Long Betting Tracker
Individual bets: 24-16 (60%)
Same Game Parlays: 2-4
Sources: BettingPros, FantasyPros, DraftKings, Razzball, PFF, Pro Football Reference, and FFToday
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
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