NFL Week 13 Leans for Every Game & Best Bets (2022)

Dec 1, 2022 - 9:59 PM

This season at BettingPros, we’re asking some of our experts to give leans and top picks for every game on the NFL slate. Here are all of their leans, picks, best bets and predictions for Week 13.

View our Pick of the Day in the BettingPros mobile app (free!) >>

Week 13 Spread Leans for Each Game

Home Team	Away Team	Home Spread	Fitzmaurice	Freedman	Santora	MacMillan
NE	BUF	5	BUF	NE	NE	NE
ATL	PIT	-1.5	ATL	PIT	ATL	PIT
BAL	DEN	-8	BAL	BAL	BAL	BAL
HOU	CLE	7	HOU	CLE	HOU	HOU
DET	JAX	-1	DET	JAX	DET	JAX
CHI	GB	3	GB	GB	CHI	GB
NYG	WAS	2.5	WAS	NYG	NYG	NYG
MIN	NYJ	-3	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN
PHI	TEN	-5.5	TEN	PHI	TEN	TEN
LAR	SEA	8	LAR	LAR	LAR	LAR
SF	MIA	-3.5	SF	SF	MIA	SF
CIN	KC	2.5	CIN	KC	CIN	CIN
LV	LAC	2	LAC	LV	LAC	LV
DAL	IND	-10	IND	IND	IND	IND
TB	NO	-3.5	TB	TB	TB	TB

NYG +2.5 vs. WAS
I’m gonna Occam’s Razor this matchup: The Giants are at home, they’ve had three extra days of rest, they’re getting healthier based on their injury report and they have the better head coach and quarterback, the latter of whom is 10-5 ATS as an underdog (8-3 ATS as underdog within division). I have this projected at a pick’em.
– Matthew Freedman

MIA +3.5 @ SF
Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel returns to San Francisco on a five-game win streak. The 49ers are on a four-game win streak themselves, led by a defense leading the league in points against (10.0) during the streak. That said, McDaniel should have some insight into how to attack the 49ers’ defense with his high-powered offense, which is averaging 33.8 points (2nd in the NFL) over that same span. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who rank in the top five in receiving yards in the NFL, provide McDaniel and the Dolphins with the playmaking ability to keep this game within a field goal.
– Dylan Santora

LV +2 vs. LAC
Josh Jacobs has been one of the best RBs in the NFL this year, spearheading the league’s 4th best rushing attack in terms of YPA. This spells trouble for a Chargers defense that has been abysmal against the run, ranking dead last in rushing YPA. Derek Carr and the Raiders should be able to pass the ball with efficiency in this matchup as well, as they hold a top 10 passing offense, and the Chargers rank in the bottom 10 in defending the pass. The Chargers roster continues to look better on paper than it does on the field, evident by their performance last week in a near loss against a completely dysfunctional Cardinals team after losing their two previous games. I like for the Raiders, who have won two in a row as road underdogs, to continue playing well and cover this spread in front of their home crowd.
– Austin MacMillan

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top-rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

Week 13 Total Leans for Each Game

Home Team	Away Team	Over/Under	Fitzmaurice	Freedman	Santora	MacMillan
NE	BUF	43.5	Over	Under	Over	Over
ATL	PIT	42	Over	Over	Over	Over
BAL	DEN	38.5	Under	Under	Over	Under
HOU	CLE	47	Under	Under	Under	Under
DET	JAX	51.5	Under	Under	Under	Over
CHI	GB	42.5	Over	Over	Over	Under
NYG	WAS	40.5	Over	Under	Under	Under
MIN	NYJ	45.5	Under	Under	Under	Under
PHI	TEN	44.5	Under	Under	Over	Under
LAR	SEA	41.5	Under	Over	Over	Over
SF	MIA	46.5	Over	Under	Over	Over
CIN	KC	52.5	Under	Over	Over	Under
LV	LAC	50.5	Over	Over	Under	Over
DAL	IND	43.5	Over	Under	Under	Over
TB	NO	40	Under	Under	Over	Over

NO @ TB Under 40.5
Over the last five weeks, these teams are averaging less than 20 ppg on offense and allowing less than 20 ppg on defense. Both metrics rank in the top 10 if looking to bet the under. The Bucs offense is third in the league in passing yards per game (277) over that span, but that has been the strength of the Saints’ defense. The Saints have allowed the second fewest yards through the air (190) over their last five games. Both running games are averaging less than 90 yards per game as well on the ground, so I like the chances of the defense keeping this game under 40.5.
– Dylan Santora

DEN @ BAL Under 38.5
I’m going back to the well for my favorite total of the week, because, frankly, the books can’t set a number low enough for games involving this Broncos team. Denver holds the title for the league’s worst offense in 2022 and one of the 10 worst offenses since 2010 in terms of PPG, only having eclipsed 16 points twice this season. On the other side of the ball, Baltimore is 4th in the NFL in offensive time per possession and runs the ball at a top-6 clip, which is the most effective way to attack this Denver defense that ranks 3rd in the league in passing YPA. Games between these two teams have combined to go 17-5 to the under this year, and I expect that trend to continue this week as a run-heavy Ravens team faces off against a historically bad Broncos offense.
– Austin MacMillan

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.

The post NFL Week 13 Leans for Every Game & Best Bets (2022) appeared first on BettingPros.