NFL Week 13 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2022)

Dec 1, 2022 - 9:30 PM

Week 12 was all about feasting. On Thanksgiving Day, I gorged myself on turkey, stuffing, mashed potatoes and pie. On Thanksgiving weekend, I gorged myself on player props and had my best week in a long time.

I’m not bragging. For most of November, I was batting around .500 on player props, struggling just to keep up with the juice. The Week 12 rainstorm brought a welcome end to a multi-week drought.

Let’s see if we can build some additional momentum in Week 12.

But first, a quick recap of Week 13.

The wins: Sam Darnold under 183.5 passing yards, Patrick Mahomes over 286.5 passing yards, Antonio Gibson under 55.5 rushing yards, Isiah Pacheco over 62.5 rushing yards, George Kittle under 45.5 receiving yards, Mike Evans under 4.5 receptions.

The loss: Russell Wilson over 217.5 passing yards.

Here are my favorite selections for Week 13 …

Last week: 6-1

Season record: 49-35

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday afternoon.

NFL Week 13 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions

Mike White OVER 241.5 passing yards

White threw for 315 yards vs. the Bears last week and now gets to face another NFC North team with a suspect pass defense. He heads to Minneapolis in week 13 to face a flammable Vikings pass defense that has given up a league-high 7.8 yards per pass attempt and has the NFL’s fifth-worst opponent passer rating. Patriots QB Mac Jones threw for 382 yards against the Vikings on Thanksgiving night, and Dak Prescott completed 22-of-25 passes for 276 yards against the Vikes four days before that. White has a nice group of pass catchers in Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis, Elijah Moore and Tyler Conklin, and Minnesota is banged up at cornerback. Cam Dantzler is on IR, and rookie Andrew Booth is out for the year with a knee injury.

Derrick Henry OVER 84.5 rushing yards

Henry has failed to clear this number in two of his last three games, averaging 59.3 rushing yards over that stretch, but is there any doubt the Titans are going to keep feeding him? For the season, Henry has cleared this number in 7-of-11 games. This week, he’s up against an Eagles defense that’s much better against the run than the pass. Philadelphia is giving up just 5.4 yards per pass attempt — tied with the Broncos for the best mark in the league — but the Eagles are yielding 4.6 yards per carry to RBs. Packers RBs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon combined for 20 carries and 107 rushing yards against the Eagles in Week 12, Jonathan Taylor ran for 84 yards against them in Week 11, Washington’s Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson combined for 130 rushing yards against Philly in Week 10, and Texans rookie Dameon Pierce ran for 139 yards against the Eagles in Week 9.

Saquon Barkley UNDER 71.5 rushing yards

The Giants running game is broken. The problem began in Week 11, when Barkley had 15 carries for 22 yards against a bad Lions defense. Against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day, Barkley had 11 carries for 39 yards. It seems unlikely that the Giants will solve their running-game problems this week against a Washington defense that has smothered the run for most of the season. The Commanders rank fourth in DVOA against the run and are allowing 79.8 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs, the seventh-lowest total in the league.

Robert Woods UNDER 36.5 receiving yards

Woods has failed to hit this number in five of his last six games, and he’s only produced 40 or more receiving yards twice in 11 games this season. Woods has had two or fewer receptions in four of his last five contests. He has a tough Week 13 matchup against the Eagles, who have allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers. Woods has lined up in the slot on only 17.3% of his snaps this year, according to PlayerProfiler.com, which means he’ll run most of his routes against either of the Eagles’ excellent outside cornerbacks, Darius Slay or James Bradberry, rather than against more beatable slot corner Josiah Scott.

Corey Davis OVER 36.5 receiving yards

As noted above, the Vikings’ pass defense has been terrible this season, which is one of the reasons I like Davis to clear this fairly low bar. The Vikings are 27th in DVOA against the pass and have given up a league-high 2,173 receiving yards to wide receivers. They have injury problems at cornerback. Over the first six weeks of the season, Davis averaged 5.5 catches and 58.5 yards per game before spraining his MCL in Week 7. Davis returned from that injury in Week 11 and played limited snaps. In Week 12, Davis had only one catch for nine yards against the Bears, but he did play 43 snaps, serving as the Jets’ No. 2 receiver ahead of Elijah Moore. With Davis getting a healthy snap share against a leaky pass defense, the over on 36.5 receiving looks like an excellent percentage play. It’s worth noting that in the two games he played with Jets QB Mike White last year, Davis had 4-47-1 and 5-93-0.

George Pickens OVER 44.5 receiving yards

Pickens has topped this number in two consecutive games, and he has a scrumptious Week 13 matchup against the Falcons, who have allowed 2,140 receiving yards to wide receivers this season, the second-highest total in the league. With Steelers RB Najee Harris dealing with an oblique injury, it’s possible the Steelers are slightly pass-heavier than usual this week. If you’ve watched Pickens play this season, you know how talented the rookie is. Leverage that talent in a favorable matchup.

Mike Gesicki UNDER 21.5 receiving yards

In his last four games, Gesicki has been targeted just 10 times. He has a brutal Week 13 matchup against a San Francisco defense that has allowed 356 receiving yards to tight ends all season. That works out to just 32.4 yards per game. Gesicki isn’t even the Dolphins’ primary tight end — he’s been splitting snaps almost evenly with Durham Smythe and has a 54% snap share for the season.

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