NFL Week 13 Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

Dec 2, 2022 - 11:35 AM

Each week, I’ll provide my favorite Sunday parlay and my favorite same-game parlay options for each game. So without further ado, here are this week’s parlay picks.

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Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) | Total 44.5

Titans +4.5
Derrick Henry over 84.5 rushing yards
Miles Sanders under 59.5 rushing yards
Odds: +589 on DraftKings

These bets all correlate pretty closely. The Titans prioritize the running game and, despite ranking 18th in rushing DVOA, should be able to create plenty of lanes for Derrick Henry against an Eagles run defense that ranks 24th in run D DVOA. Tennessee is also the best in the league against the run, which means Sanders could be limited.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Chicago Bears | Total 44.5

There’s still some quarterback uncertainty surrounding this game. Aaron Rodgers said he was playing after exiting last week’s game with an injury. Meanwhile, Justin Fields practiced fully Thursday after missing last week’s loss against the Jets. While both are trending in the right direction, this game’s prop menu is still rather small.

However, assuming Fields and Rodgers play, I would gladly take the over, as well as Aaron Jones over rushing yards and Christian Watson anytime TD props. The Bears rank 31st in defensive DVOA and won’t have Eddie Jackson manning the deep part of the field when Rodgers goes deep to Watson. The Bears also can’t stop the run, so Jones should run wild.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-0.5) | Total 51

Over 51
Amon-Ra St. Brown over 76.5 receiving yards
Jamaal Williams anytime TD
Odds: +553 DraftKings

This is a tough game to get a feel for, as both of these cellar dwellers have shown life as of late. However, both defenses rank outside the top 25 in defensive DVOA, so I’d expect plenty of points regardless. The Jaguars are actually somewhat stout against the run but can’t stop a nosebleed through the air, ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA. And while I don’t love Williams’ rushing yardage prop, it’s hard to get off the touchdown wave after he’s cracked the goal line in four of his last five.

Cleveland Browns (-7) at Houston Texans | Total 46.5

This is another game that’s lacking a prop menu at the moment as we await the official status of both quarterbacks. Deshaun Watson is eligible to return this week and could be rusty in his debut against his old team. Meanwhile, the Texans started Kyle Allen last week but were still down 30-0 by halftime. The Texans will be motivated for this game, and it should be the biggest crowd of the season at NRG Stadium. I probably won’t touch this game. But for the reasons above, I’d hold my nose and take the Texans and the touchdown.

As for props, I’d target the overs for both Nick Chubb and Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards. Houston ranks 30th against the run, while Cleveland ranks 31st.

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-3) | Total 44.5

Jets +3
Mike White over 243.5 passing yards
Garrett Wilson over 4.5 receptions
Odds: +496 DraftKings

What if I told you it was the 7-4 Jets who are 9th in overall DVOA, and the 9-2 Vikings are actually 22nd? Well, those are the real rankings, which is pretty telling. White has injected some legitimacy into this Jets offense for at least one week, and he faces a Vikings secondary that ranks 27th in DVOA and 31st against short-field passes. That’s where White specialized against the Bears last week, and the rookie Wilson should benefit. Wilson has hit five receptions in three of his last four games.

While I’m not in the business of fading Justin Jefferson, he could be in for his stiffest test yet against this talented Jets secondary. It’s crazy, but I don’t hate fading his receiving yardage total.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Atlanta Falcons | Total 42.5

Under 42.5
Marcus Mariota under 210.5 passing and rushing yards
George Pickens over 46.5 receiving yards
Odds: +567 DraftKings

This is a tricky intra-conference game to project and one I probably won’t play. Neither team is overly impressive, yet I can’t get behind, backing either of them. For that reason, I’ll take the under between two offenses that can’t take advantage of their opponent’s defensive weaknesses. Marcus Mariota is as pedestrian as they come and could struggle mightily against Pittsburgh’s front. Pickens has cleared this prop in two straight games and could bust a big play or two against a Falcons secondary that ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA.

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) | Total 39.5

Under 39.5
Lamar Jackson under 192.5 passing yards
Mark Andrews anytime TD
Odds: +831 DraftKings

Another game that makes me vomit. I can’t back Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett. But I also can’t back a Ravens team that can’t seem to hold leads. So I’ll just bet on a boring, lousy game between two top-10 defensive teams. The Ravens’ passing game has struggled mightily with no reputable weapons on the outside, but when in doubt, I’ll bank on Mark Andrews to get pay dirt.

Washington Commanders (-2.5) at New York Giants | Total 40.5

Under 40.5
Saquon Barkley under 69.5 rushing yards
Taylor Heinicke anytime INT
Odds: +560 DraftKings

Who doesn’t love ugly divisional games? The Giants’ offense has hit a rut, as it seems like Brian Daboll can only do so much to overcome his quarterback. This rushing prop feels low for Saquon, but Washington ranks 4th in run defense DVOA. And Heinicke has thrown a pick in five of his last six appearances.

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-4) | Total 46.5

Under 46.5
George Kittle over 41.5 receiving yards
Tua Tagovailoa under 272 passing yards
Odds: +564 DraftKings

This line feels about right to me, so instead, I’ll bet on a lower-scoring affair between Kyle Shanahan and his disciple, Mike McDaniel. The 49ers rank 10th in pass defense DVOA, while the Dolphins rank 12th in run defense DVOA. Both defenses could take away the strengths of the opposing offensive units. To win, I think Shanahan will need to dial up some plays downfield for Kittle. Tagovailoa could struggle against one of the best defenses he’s faced this year.

Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at Los Angeles Rams | Total 40.5

Rams +7.5
Kenneth Walker under 70.5 rushing yards
Geno Smith anytime INT
Odds: +683 DraftKings

This is gross, but this line has gone way too far with the loss of Aaron Donald to go with the absences of Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. The Rams are still a professional outfit playing for contracts, and they just covered as big road underdogs against Kansas City. The Rams also have no incentive to tank, seeing that their first-round pick will be heading to Detroit this year. I expect Sean McVay to find ways to use Bryce Perkins’ legs to his advantage against a terrible Seahawks defense. While there are no available props for the Rams, I feel comfortable betting against Walker, who will face a Rams D that ranks sixth in run defense DVOA. I also think Jalen Ramsey can bait Geno Smith into at least one mistake once the Rams take the play-action pass away.

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (-1) | Total 50.5

Raiders -1
Josh Jacobs over 91.5 rushing yards
Justin Herbert over 289.5 passing yards
Odds: +571 DraftKings

This line has moved quite a bit, with L.A. opening as a field goal favorite at some spots. I liked this line a lot more when Vegas was the underdog, but I still don’t mind them as a short home dog. The reason why is Josh Jacobs, who should have another massive day against a Chargers defense that ranks 29th against the run. Conversely, the Chargers’ passing game should feast on a Raiders secondary that ranks dead last.

Kansas City Chiefs (-2) at Cincinnati Bengals | Total 53

Bengals +2
Joe Burrow over 297.5 passing yards
Travis Kelce anytime TD
Odds: +532 DraftKings

While this is a revenge spot for Kansas City, I think the Bengals will be able to attack an inexperienced Chiefs secondary that ranks 18th in DVOA. The return of Ja’Marr Chase should only help, assuming he’s close to full health. However, we all know Travis Kelce will get his.

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