NFL Week 13 gambling guide: Best bets for Lions-Jaguars

Dec 4, 2022 - 4:00 PM

Hello, friends, and welcome to a tradition unlike any other: looking at the best bets for another Detroit Lions matchup.

That’s right, back and better than ever, we’re taking a look at what the slate has to offer us for this meeting of the Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars—a couple of teams still very much in the thick of their respective conference’s playoff discussion, but both in need of a win to keep things headed in the right direction.

As always, the past is the past, and you’re only as good as the last ticket you’ve cashed, so let’s get to work, y’all.

Let’s take a look at the best bets you have available to you from DraftKings, the official sportsbook sponsor of SB Nation.

What is Week 13’s best bet for Lions-Jaguars?

First thing you’ll notice about the way Vegas views this game is just how unclear they see it themselves. The Lions are favored by just a point after they narrowly lost to the Buffalo Bills on Thanksgiving and the Jaguars’ fourth-quarter comeback victory over the Baltimore Ravens put everyone on notice. The 51-point total for this game is the second-highest of Week 13 behind only the Kansas City Chiefs matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals (52).

So Vegas anticipates a close game that won’t be short on points scored, and I can’t say I disagree with that assessment.

The Lions surrender the fifth-most passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks (271.73) while the Jaguars give up the eighth-most passing yards per game (257.82), and both of these passing defenses leave a lot to be desired—after a few weeks of steady improvement, Detroit ranks 19th in Pass DVOA while Jacksonville ranks 30th.

For the first two legs of this same-game parlay, grab Jared Goff OVER 224.5 passing yards (-165) and Trevor Lawrence OVER 224.5 passing yards (-210) because there will be no shortage on these teams throwing it all over place inside Ford Field.

Surprisingly enough, these two props parlayed together nets you a +120 parlay, and that’s about as safe as you can get while getting plus-money odds from DraftKings.

Next, we’re going to take a chance. Feel free to hold onto something a little more sturdy with the above parlay, but if you want to turn this into more of a lottery ticket, stick around.

We’re counting on D’Andre Swift for these extra legs to get a juicier payout. The hope here is that Swift got healthier with a week and a half off after Thanksgiving, and he’s ready for a bigger workload against the Jaguars.

Jacksonville allows the fourth-most receptions per game to opposing running backs in the NFL (6.18) and the sixth-most receiving yards per game (45.91), so if there was a game for Swift to burst back onto the scene, this week would be it. We’re going to add D’Andre Swift OVER 29.5 receiving yards (+130) to the above passing props for a same-game parlay with +320 odds.

To put the finishing touches on what I would consider a home run swing of a bet, we’re going with touchdown totals for each team. Over the last three games, the Lions are averaging 3.7 touchdowns per game and at Ford Field, they’re averaging 3.8 touchdowns per game. In a game that won’t be short on points, I like taking Detroit Lions OVER 2.5 total touchdowns (-175) and grabbing the Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 3.5 total touchdowns (-235). The Jaguars are 19th in red zone touchdown efficiency at just 53.66 percent, and they’re averaging just 2.7 touchdowns per game over their last three contests.

Here’s a breakdown of each leg and the final odds:

Jared Goff OVER 224.5 passing yards (-165)
Trevor Lawrence OVER 224.5 passing yards (-210)
D’Andre Swift OVER 29.5 receiving yards (+130)
Detroit Lions OVER 2.5 total touchdowns (-175)
Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 3.5 total touchdowns (-235)

Total odds: +800