Monday Night Football Player Props, Picks & Predictions: Saints vs. Bucs (2022)

Dec 5, 2022 - 1:33 PM

Without a winning record to be found throughout the NFC South, the entire division remains alive for the chance to host a playoff game. By handling the Saints (4-8) on Monday night, the Buccaneers (5-6) can go a long way toward ensuring it’s them.

Here are our favorite prop plays for Monday Night Football.

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Monday Night Football Player Props, Picks & Predictions (Saints vs. Bucs)

Tom Brady UNDER 271.5 Passing Yards (-113 via FanDuel)

The Saints rank eighth in the NFL in pass defense, allowing just 197.3 yards per game through the air on the season. New Orleans has allowed 270+ passing yards in a game just twice all year and not at all since mid-October. In Brady’s matchup with the Saints earlier this season, he threw for just 190 yards.

With all of Brady’s primary weapons healthy this time around, I don’t believe the Saints will be able to keep him below 200 passing yards again. But climbing into the 270-range seems lofty for a game script that should be dominated by defense. Brady has cleared this line in six of 11 games but has fallen short of it two weeks in a row.

Both DraftKings and FanDuel post the line on Brady’s passing yards at 271.5. FanDuel offers slightly more favorable odds on the prop at -113 compared to -115 at DraftKings.

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Alvin Kamara UNDER 48.5 Rushing Yards (-115 via DraftKings)

Coming off of a game in which he accrued just 13 rushing yards against the 49ers, Kamara could be in for another slow night on the ground Monday.

In perhaps uncharacteristic fashion, the Bucs have actually allowed more on the ground this season than one might expect at 123.2 rushing yards per game. Tampa has been stronger over its last three contests, though, limiting opponents to 98.7 rushing yards per game during that stretch.

Kamara hasn’t exactly been breaking down the door to challenge run defenses in his typical fashion. The veteran ball carrier has failed to eclipse 3.5 yards per carry for five consecutive games, maxing out at 42 rushing yards in each of his past four appearances. I expect Kamara to fall short of the line again Monday, with the UNDER looking attractive at both DraftKings (48.5 yards, -115 odds) and FanDuel (47.5, -113).

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Mike Evans Any Time Touchdown Scorer (+150 via FanDuel)

Consider this last prop contingent on the status of Saints’ cover man Marshon Lattimore, who has missed a large chunk of the season after a brutal collision in Week 5. Lattimore has been practicing on a limited basis but still may not be ready to return to action on Monday.

If Lattimore is out once again, it’s time to fire up every Evans prop imaginable for this game. The battles between Evans and Lattimore are legendary, with the physical wide receiver having the propensity to participate in extra-curricular activities against the veteran DB. Typically, though, that comes out of frustration on Evans’ part as Lattimore has historically done a solid job of locking him up.

In the first meeting this season, Lattimore limited Evans to three receptions for 61 yards before the latter was ejected for shoving the former. If Lattimore can’t go, I expect Evans to take full advantage of the opportunity to find the end zone as his nemesis watches helplessly from the sideline.

The Evans’ touchdown odds are preferable at FanDuel, which lists the prop at +150. DraftKings has it at +140.

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