NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 14: Picks & Predictions (2022)

Dec 7, 2022 - 11:25 AM

In last week’s column, we tipped the Dallas Cowboys and Cleveland Browns as our safest picks, and both teams won by a combined 48 points. In addition, our “risky plays” of the Baltimore Ravens and Seattle Seahawks emerged victorious, but both took the lead in their games with touchdown drives in the final minute of the fourth quarter. Lastly, our contrarian play of the Detroit Lions gained people an edge in survivor pools that had them available to use as a “coin flip” game, according to the oddsmakers, turned into a 40-14 rout. And for those that used the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in survivor pools despite their past issues with the New Orleans Saints, you experienced a whirlwind of emotions in an ultimate last-second victory.

With 8 seconds on the clock when the ball was snapped, Tom Brady threw the latest game-winning touchdown pass of his career.

It marks the largest regular-season 4th quarter comeback of Brady's career. pic.twitter.com/fAcDA6tORQ

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 6, 2022

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 14 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

Safest Picks

Dallas Cowboys (-1600), Kansas City Chiefs (-430), Cincinnati Bengals (-260), Las Vegas Raiders (-255)

If you have Dallas available to use in survivor pools, do not get cute and save them for any future weeks, as this week’s matchup against Houston is one of the biggest mismatches the NFL has seen this season. The Texans’ 1-10-1 start is their worst since 2005. They have lost seven or more games for the second consecutive season and have 10+ losses for the third straight year. Meanwhile, Dallas is coming off a +33 fourth-quarter differential against Indianapolis, which is tied for the best point differential in the fourth quarter in NFL history.

Kansas City has beaten Denver 13 straight times, and another victory would tie the Patriots and Jets for the longest active winning streak by one opponent against another. The Chiefs still have a ways to go to break the record for consecutive wins between division rivals (since 1970), as the Dolphins beat the Bills 20 straight times from 1970-1979. However, the current 13-game winning streak is already the sixth-highest on that list. It is not just the Broncos that Mahomes beats up on, as he is 24-3 in his career against AFC West opponents. In addition, he has not lost a divisional game on the road in his career, including a 5-0 record at Mile High Stadium. Mahomes is 14-0 in road games against division rivals, which is the second-longest winning streak by a quarterback in division games since the 1970 merger. He needs seven more such wins to break Joe Montana’s record of 20 set from 1984-93.

Cincinnati is hot, having won eight of ten games after an 0-2 start. Granted, one of their recent losses was to the Browns (32-13), which was Cleveland’s only victory in a seven-game stretch earlier in the season. However, Cincinnati’s current four-game winning streak is its longest since 2017-18, and Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson just turned in the worst QBR of his career, as he looked rusty after playing his first game in 700 days.

The Raiders have a brutal schedule down the stretch (vs. New England, at Pittsburgh, vs. San Francisco, vs. Kansas City), so if you have yet to use them in survivor pools, now is the time. Their matchup is one of two teams heading in opposite directions, as Las Vegas has won three straight while Los Angeles’ six-game losing streak is its longest since 2016. In addition, its 3-9 start is its worst since 2011, and things do not appear to be getting better anytime soon, with so many of its best players out with injuries.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Buffalo Bills (-420), Philadelphia Eagles (-300), Pittsburgh Steelers (-158)

The Bills have already lost to the Jets with Zach Wilson at quarterback, and given how rejuvenated New York looks with Mike White under center, we will stay far away from this rematch, even if Buffalo is playing in front of Bills Mafia.

Similarly, we are not rushing to back the Eagles as divisional road favorites over the Giants, despite Philadelphia getting off to its best start since 2004 (11-1). New York is 3-26-1 in the 30 career games that Saquon Barkley has rushed for 65 or fewer yards, but we trust Brian Daboll and the Giants staff can find creative ways to get him loose.

The Steelers swung from +4.5 point underdogs on the lookahead line to -3 point favorites after the news of Lamar Jackson’s knee injury surfaced. And while Tyler Huntley went 1-3 as a starter last season with a 2-4 TD-INT ratio, Ravens-Steelers games always seem to come down to the wire, and we would not want to subject ourselves to those emotions this deep into a survivor pool contest.

Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool

Seattle Seahawks (-184)

The Seahawks enter this game banged up in the backfield, as Kenneth Walker III, Travis Homer, and DeeJay Dallas’s statuses are all unknown. However, Geno Smith is still playing the best football of his life with a top-five QBR (64.8). Plus, the combination of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf torched the Rams secondary for 17 receptions, 255 yards, and two touchdowns, so Seattle should be a safe pick to beat Carolina even if it has to rely more on the passing game than it is usually accustomed to.

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