Bills enjoy one-week spike in AFC playoff odds

Dec 7, 2022 - 3:00 PM

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Y_SI59E0AXA8mswes_Y9HsnutCM=/0x0:5563x3129/1920x1080/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71721347/usa_today_19541063.0.jpg" />

The NFL is a week-to-week league, and that held especially true for the Buffalo Bills in Week 13. With a win over the New England Patriots and timely losses by the New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, and Kansas City Chiefs, the Bills suddenly found themselves as the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff picture after spending a month in the wild card area of the standings.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the statistical jump the Bills made last weekend, based on playoff prediction modeling from Football Outsiders, The New York Times, and FiveThirtyEight. The short version here: the gains were massive, but the Bills need to keep winning, especially their division games, in order to make good on their newly-found advantages.

AFC East standings, Week 14

When the Bills are the only team to win in the division in given week — particularly this late in the season — you can guess how much their chances at winning the division would jump, and you’d probably be close.

• Football Outsiders gives the Bills a 73.1% chance to win the division. That’s up from 55.3% a week ago, for a one-week jump of 17.8%.
• The New York Times gives the Bills an 80% chance to win the division. That’s up from 61% a week ago, for a one-week jump of 19%.
• FiveThirtyEight gives the Bills an 83% chance to win the division. That’s up from 63% a week ago, for a one-week jump of 20%.

Using The New York Times’ predictor, and without considering any other game results other than Buffalo’s, here are some notes on how important their next two games — home tilts with the Jets and the Dolphins — are to their division-title outlook.

• A win over just the Jets ups the Bills’ chances to win the division to roughly 88%.
• A win over both the Jets and the Dolphins ups the Bills’ chances to win the division to roughly 98%.
• Conversely, a loss to just the Jets drops the Bills’ chances to win the division to roughly 59%.
• Conversely, a loss to both the Jets and the Dolphins drops the Bills’ chances to win the division to roughly 25%.

AFC playoff picture, Week 14

Kansas City’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals ensured that the Bills would have the best odds of having a first-round bye in the postseason — but the Bengals also gained significantly due to the win. The Chiefs are nipping at the heels of the Bills in all three models, but the AFC North winner (either Cincinnati or Baltimore) is also now taking a larger slice of the pie.

• Football Outsiders gives the Bills a 46.3% chance of securing the No. 1 seed. That’s up from 25.2% last week. Kansas City (33.2%) and the AFC North (11.8% total, 9.6% for Cincinnati) follow Buffalo in that metric.
• The New York Times gives the Bills a 51% chance of securing the No. 1 seed. That’s up from 30% last week. Kansas City (31%) and the AFC North (14% total, 10% for Cincinnati) follow Buffalo in that metric.
• FiveThirtyEight gives the Bills a 48% chance of securing the No. 1 seed. That’s up from 22% last week. Kansas City (39%) and the AFC North (11% total, 9% for Cincinnati) follow Buffalo in that metric.

Once again using The New York Times’ predictor, and without considering game outcomes for the Chiefs, Bengals, and Ravens — just the Bills — here’s what the next two games’ outcomes will do for Buffalo’s shot at the top seed.

• A win over just the Jets ups the Bills’ chances for the No. 1 seed to roughly 60%.
• A win over both the Jets and the Dolphins ups the Bills’ chances for the No. 1 seed to roughly 70%.
• Conversely, a loss to just the Jets drops the Bills’ chances for the No. 1 seed to roughly 30%.
• Conversely, a loss to both the Jets and the Dolphins drops the Bills’ chances for the No. 1 seed to roughly 9%.

The Bills hold head-to-head tiebreakers over Kansas City and the Baltimore Ravens, thanks to wins over both in Weeks 6 and 4, respectively, but they do not (yet) hold such an advantage over Cincinnati. Those two teams play each other in Week 16, right after the Bills complete their three-division-games-in-a-row gauntlet, and that game’s outcome could go a long way in tipping the No. 1 seed scale in the favor of Buffalo.

But first, they need to handle the Jets. It’s a week-to-week league, and while fans can look ahead, the Bills can’t afford to do much of that.