Will Sunday come down to the final drive against Tom Brady?

Dec 9, 2022 - 4:30 PM

The 49ers enter Sunday on a five-game winning streak after their 33-17 win over the Dolphins last week. The streak is the longest the 49ers have had since they started 2019 9-0. They face a Buccaneers team that’s won three of their last four, with the lone loss being in overtime to the Browns.

With the 49ers looking to extend the winning streak to six, here are some numbers that could play a factor on Sunday:

65/35

The Buccaneers' pass-to-run ratio this season. Tampa Bay’s offense throws the ball more than any other team in the league, and only the Houston Texans have run the ball fewer times than the Buccaneers. This could be an advantage for the 49ers' defense, whose pass rush and secondary have been two of the many bright spots of the 49ers' defense. The 49ers' pass rush has 36 sacks on the season, while the defense has forced 12 interceptions.

However, Brady has only thrown three interceptions, and the offensive line has allowed only 18 sacks in the team's 12 games. If the Buccaneers' offense becomes too one-dimensional, how the 49ers' defense handles Brady will be the matchup of the game.

25.6

Percentage of drives ending in an offense scored allowed by the 49ers' defense. That’s the lowest percentage allowed this season, while the Tampa Bay offense only scores on 32.8 percent of their drives, the ninth-lowest percentage in the league this season.

The Buccaneers offense has only scored more than 20 points in a game five times this season and has been held under that total in five of their last seven games. They’ll face a 49ers defense that hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in a game since Week 7.

18.3

Points per game allowed by the Buccaneers' defense. On the flip side of the Buccaneers' offensive woes, their defense has allowed the fifth-fewest points this season. Like the 49ers' defense, Tampa Bay was torched by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense for 41 points, but since then, they have allowed 20 or more points in four of their last eight games.

While a defense that doesn’t allow points much could seem like a challenge for Brock Purdy, it’s a defense that doesn’t force turnovers. The Buccaneers defense has forced fewer turnovers this season, 11, than the 49ers' defense has interceptions alone, 12.

44

Career fourth-quarter comebacks by Tom Brady. Brady passed Peyton Manning for most all-time with his 13-point fourth-quarter comeback against the Saints on Monday night. It was also the second game of Brady’s career where he’s overcome at least a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit, the first coming against Kyle Shanahan in Super Bowl LI.

No lead feels safe when facing Brady, especially in a one-score game late in the fourth quarter. So it’ll be on Shanahan to have his offense out-pace Brady, or it’ll be a stressful fourth quarter for 49ers fans.

1 year, 8 months, and 27 days

Age of Brock Purdy when Tom Brady replaced an injured Drew Bledsoe during the Patriots' Week 2 game against the Jets in 2001. While this stat has no bearing on the outcome of the game, the 49ers hadn’t faced Tom Brady since 2016, when Brady was a spry 39-year-old.

Now at 45, he’ll face a 49ers quarterback who is half his age in Purdy. Brady’s record against rookie quarterbacks is 23-6, with Kenny Pickett and the Steelers snapping Brady’s 12-game winning streak against first-year quarterbacks back in Week 6.